Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Istanbul Basaksehir
6th · 42 pts · 26 played
LWWWL
0–0Full time
Antalyaspor
15th · 24 pts · 26 played
WLDLL
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were clear favourites.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Istanbul Basaksehir. Istanbul Basaksehir had 4 days of rest, Antalyaspor 5 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days4 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
Istanbul Basaksehir71%
Draw18%
Antalyaspor11%
Istanbul Basaksehir64%
Draw21%
Antalyaspor14%
Istanbul Basaksehir71%
Draw18%
Antalyaspor11%
Istanbul Basaksehir64%
Draw21%
Antalyaspor15%
Istanbul Basaksehir71%
Draw18%
Antalyaspor11%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeResat Onur Coskunses
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Istanbul BasaksehirAntalyaspor
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
32
AttackIn forecast
11
34
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirAntalyaspor
1.69
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.96
1.15
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.65
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
85%
Scored inContext
65%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
12.50
ShotsContext
8.38
4.46
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
36%
On target shareContext
39%
8.63
Shots in the boxContext
5.56
65%
Box shareContext
63%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
1.72
OffsidesContext
2.09
12.69
Shots allowedContext
13.54
4.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.85
4.00
BlocksContext
3.08
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.23
74%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
422
PassesContext
329
355
Accurate passesContext
258
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.77
FoulsContext
11.92
13.08
Fouls sufferedContext
14.16
2.15
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
0.71
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.00
ShotsContext
8.80
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
42%
On target shareContext
32%
9.78
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
72%
Box shareContext
60%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.70
Shots allowedContext
11.90
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.56
BlocksContext
3.22
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
69%
Save rateContext
71%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
423
PassesContext
315
356
Accurate passesContext
242
84%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.72
14.40
FoulsContext
12.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.11
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antalyaspor
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel481 km1,928 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Antalyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,928 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 19 | 17.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
88K. Karataş
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
42Ö. Şahiner
20U. Güneş
8O. Kemen
25A. Harit
14E. Shomurodov
7Y. Sarı
9D. Selke
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
3K. Paal
14G. Dzhikiya
5B. Öztürk
89V. Sarı
17E. Yeşilyurt
6S. Dikmen
8R. Safouri
23Jesper Ceesay
11S. Ballet
22S. van de Streek
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Antalyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Antalyaspor+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
1.54points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-3
- Scored
- 1.77
- Conceded
- 1.31
Antalyaspor · Away
0.92points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-7
- Scored
- 0.54
- Conceded
- 0.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Istanbul Basaksehir | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H | L 1–4 H |
| Goztepe | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Konyaspor | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Besiktas | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Rizespor | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 AL 2–5 H |
| Kayserispor | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 5–1 H | L 1–4 HL 2–3 A |
| Samsunspor | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–1 A | D 0–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 3–4 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 39 of 75 · 1.56 per game | 24 of 75 · 0.96 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Istanbul Basaksehir wins1 draws1 Antalyaspor wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.60
Over 2.540%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets60% · 40%
- 26 Oct 2025Antalyaspor0–4Istanbul Basaksehir
- 9 Feb 2025Antalyaspor0–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 1 Sep 2024Istanbul Basaksehir5–2Antalyaspor
- 9 Mar 2024Istanbul Basaksehir1–0Antalyaspor
- 29 Oct 2023Antalyaspor1–0Istanbul Basaksehir
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.69 | 0.96 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.15 | 1.65 | |
| Match goals | 2.85 | 2.62 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 54% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 58% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 35% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.40 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 50% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.68 | 3.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 5.81 | |
| Match total | 10.12 | 9.66 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 16/25 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 14/25 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 13/25 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 2.23 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.42 | 2.35 | |
| Match total | 4.73 | 4.58 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 18/26 | 65% 17/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 13/26 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.80 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 10.70 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.50 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Resat Onur Coskunses Türkiye · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.39
Red cards0.00league 0.21
Cards 5+50%league 44%
Fouls25.0league 25.9
Penalties0.00league 0.27
Home wins50%league 39%
Istanbul BasaksehirNo previous matches with this referee.
Antalyaspor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Jan 26H · Genclerbirligi2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Istanbul Basaksehir26 games · scored 44 · conceded 30
4
0-15
7
2
16-30
7
8
31-45
7
4
46-60
9
8
61-75
10
8
76-90
Antalyaspor26 games · scored 25 · conceded 43
3
9
0-15
4
4
16-30
5
6
31-45
4
8
46-60
4
4
61-75
5
12
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 22 · conceded 13
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
