Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Istanbul Basaksehir had 13.9 days of rest, Eyüpspor 6 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days13.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Istanbul Basaksehir49%
Draw25%
Eyüpspor26%
Istanbul Basaksehir48%
Draw26%
Eyüpspor26%
Istanbul Basaksehir49%
Draw25%
Eyüpspor26%
Istanbul Basaksehir41%
Draw27%
Eyüpspor32%
Istanbul Basaksehir48%
Draw26%
Eyüpspor26%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeZorbay Kucuk
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 4
Team strength
Istanbul Basaksehir
Eyüpspor
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
32
AttackIn forecast
9
34
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirEyüpspor
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
—
Scored inContext
100%
—
Clean sheetsContext
0%
—
ShotsContext
10.67
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
—
On target shareContext
31%
—
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
—
Box shareContext
66%
—
ConversionContext
13%
—
OffsidesContext
2.33
—
Shots allowedContext
14.33
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
—
BlocksContext
5.00
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
—
Save rateContext
67%
—
PossessionIn forecast
51%
—
PassesContext
383
—
Accurate passesContext
319
—
Pass accuracyContext
83%
—
Team ratingContext
6.76
—
FoulsContext
11.67
—
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
—
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
—
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
2.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.00
ShotsContext
9.80
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
30%
On target shareContext
35%
9.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
72%
Box shareContext
63%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
3.40
OffsidesContext
2.38
13.78
Shots allowedContext
13.30
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.89
BlocksContext
4.10
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
67%
Save rateContext
56%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
441
PassesContext
441
372
Accurate passesContext
381
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.33
FoulsContext
10.30
14.22
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eyüpspor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Eyüpspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Aug | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 12.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
98D. Dilmen(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
27O. Ba
36F. Ebosele
4O. Ergün
11A. Fayzullaev
8O. Kemen
13Miguel Crespo
7Y. Sarı
14E. Shomurodov
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
18N. Mujakić
4Luccas Claro
6R. Yalçın
11S. Gürler
30Y. Kayan
10K. Demirbay
2Calegari
99S. Sešlar
70D. Drăguş
19U. Bozok
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
Absences are shown before kick-off
Eyüpspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Eyüpspor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Eyüpspor · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Istanbul Basaksehir wins1 draws0 Eyüpspor wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 31 Mar 2025Eyüpspor1–3Istanbul Basaksehir
- 28 Oct 2024Istanbul Basaksehir1–1Eyüpspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.67 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 3 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.67 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 8.50 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 14.00 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 4.33 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 6.22 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 10.00 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.60 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Zorbay Kucuk Türkiye · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.75league 4.08
Red cards0.75league 0.27
Cards 5+50%league 42%
Fouls28.5league 25.7
Penalties0.25league 0.35
Home wins50%league 42%
Istanbul Basaksehir1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W20 Apr 25H · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–12
EyüpsporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Istanbul Basaksehir1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Eyüpspor3 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
2
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
9
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
