Istanbul Basaksehir vs Fenerbahce – 6 Dec 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 15 Sat, Dec 6 · 17:00 Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, İstanbul

Istanbul Basaksehir 9th · 16 pts · 14 played WWLLW

1–1Full time

Fenerbahce 2nd · 32 pts · 14 played WWWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce were slight favourites.

Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 27). Istanbul Basaksehir had 7 days of rest, Fenerbahce 5 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 3

Istanbul Basaksehir21%

Draw23%

Fenerbahce56%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.89

Istanbul Basaksehir21%

Draw25%

Fenerbahce54%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.75

Istanbul Basaksehir21%

Draw24%

Fenerbahce55%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.84

Istanbul Basaksehir16%

Draw21%

Fenerbahce63%

Expected goals 0.96 – 2.12

Istanbul Basaksehir21%

Draw24%

Fenerbahce55%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.80

Over 2.5 57% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.44
Matches 9

Team strength

Istanbul Basaksehir

Fenerbahce

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 66

36 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

32 AttackIn forecast 75

34 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Istanbul Basaksehir

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Istanbul Basaksehir

Fenerbahce

1.36 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.21

1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.93

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.95

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.72

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

79% Scored inContext 86%

36% Clean sheetsContext 36%

11.71 ShotsContext 18.36

3.64 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.71

31% On target shareContext 37%

7.69 Shots in the boxContext 10.64

61% Box shareContext 58%

12% ConversionContext 12%

1.91 OffsidesContext 2.09

13.00 Shots allowedContext 8.14

4.79 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.79

3.77 BlocksContext 3.18

3.64 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.36

76% Save rateContext 77%

56% PossessionIn forecast 60%

425 PassesContext 476

360 Accurate passesContext 411

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.99

12.29 FoulsContext 12.57

13.93 Fouls sufferedContext 13.93

2.43 Yellow cardsContext 2.36

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.73

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.86

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.37

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.60 ShotsContext 18.30

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.20

30% On target shareContext 39%

8.33 Shots in the boxContext 10.40

60% Box shareContext 56%

12% ConversionContext 12%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.50 Shots allowedContext 9.50

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

3.89 BlocksContext 2.78

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

76% Save rateContext 81%

57% PossessionIn forecast 56%

436 PassesContext 435

373 Accurate passesContext 368

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.96

11.70 FoulsContext 10.80

14.90 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 3.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Istanbul Basaksehir

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fenerbahce

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,940 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Fenerbahce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 29 Nov	5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	1,940 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Istanbul Basaksehir Confirmed XI

4-4-2

16M. Şengezer(G)

21C. Opéri 27O. Ba 5Léo Duarte 42Ö. Şahiner

25A. Harit 20U. Güneş 8O. Kemen 11A. Fayzullaev

14E. Shomurodov 10Nuno da Costa

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31Ederson(G)

22M. Mercan 14Y. Demir 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

7Fred 11E. Álvarez

70O. Aydın 94Talisca 21Marco Asensio

10J. Durán

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Istanbul Basaksehir Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fenerbahce Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Istanbul Basaksehir-0.4 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Fenerbahce+0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Istanbul Basaksehir · Home 1.00points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 1-3-2
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 1.33

Fenerbahce · Away 2.14points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 4-3-0
Scored: 2.29
Conceded: 0.86

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	Istanbul Basaksehir	Fenerbahce
Kasimpasa	W 3–1 A	D 1–1 A
Trabzonspor	L 3–4 H	W 1–0 H
Genclerbirligi	L 1–2 A	W 3–1 A
Kocaelispor	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 H
Antalyaspor	W 4–0 A	W 2–0 H
Rizespor	D 0–0 A	W 5–2 A
Galatasaray	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 H
Goztepe	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 A
Alanyaspor	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
Fatih Karagümrük	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 H
Besiktas	L 1–2 A	W 3–2 A
Kayserispor	D 1–1 H	W 4–2 H
Points	15 of 36 · 1.25 per game	28 of 36 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Istanbul Basaksehir wins0 draws4 Fenerbahce wins

Goals per game0.50 – 3.00 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

9 May 2025Istanbul Basaksehir1–4Fenerbahce
15 Dec 2024Fenerbahce3–1Istanbul Basaksehir
24 Jan 2024Istanbul Basaksehir0–1Fenerbahce
28 Sep 2023Fenerbahce4–0Istanbul Basaksehir

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.36	2.21
Conceded per game	1.14	0.93
Match goals	2.50	3.14	2.97
Over 1.5	71%	79%
Over 2.5	50%	57%	57%
Over 3.5	21%	50%
Both teams scored	57%	64%	57%
Clean sheets	36%	36%
Failed to score	21%	14%
Games	14	14

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.10
Conceded per game	1.30	0.90
Match goals	2.80	3.00	2.97
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	57%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	5.21	5.64
Corners conceded	5.50	3.91
Match total	10.71	9.55	9.44
Over 8.5	86% 12/14	55% 6/11
Over 9.5	71% 10/14	45% 5/11
Over 10.5	64% 9/14	36% 4/11
Cards
Cards	2.64	2.43
Opponent cards	2.93	3.43
Match total	5.57	5.86	4.75
Over 3.5	86% 12/14	79% 11/14
Over 4.5	64% 9/14	64% 9/14

	Istanbul Basaksehir	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	5.50
Corners conceded	5.40	5.10
Match total	10.90	10.60	9.44
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	3.30
Opponent cards	3.00	3.10
Match total	5.60	6.40	4.75
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 9 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.33league 4.47

Red cards0.11league 0.26

Cards 5+44%league 47%

Fouls26.3league 26.2

Penalties0.44league 0.28

Home wins33%league 36%

Istanbul Basaksehir1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D21 Sep 25H · Alanyaspor1–13

Fenerbahce

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.