Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Istanbul Basaksehir
15th · 6 pts · 7 played
LWDLL
1–2Full time
Galatasaray
1st · 22 pts · 8 played
WWWWD
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 24). Istanbul Basaksehir had 13 days of rest, Galatasaray 14 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days13 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Istanbul Basaksehir16%
Draw21%
Galatasaray63%
Istanbul Basaksehir16%
Draw22%
Galatasaray61%
Istanbul Basaksehir16%
Draw21%
Galatasaray62%
Istanbul Basaksehir11%
Draw18%
Galatasaray71%
Istanbul Basaksehir16%
Draw22%
Galatasaray62%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan
- Cards per match 5.9
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 14
Team strength
Istanbul BasaksehirGalatasaray
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
74
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
32
AttackIn forecast
57
34
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirGalatasaray
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.38
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
2.18
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
71%
Scored inContext
100%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
63%
10.71
ShotsContext
15.88
3.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.88
31%
On target shareContext
37%
6.86
Shots in the boxContext
10.38
62%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.83
11.71
Shots allowedContext
10.13
3.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
3.14
BlocksContext
2.71
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
76%
Save rateContext
90%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
436
PassesContext
496
370
Accurate passesContext
435
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.15
13.29
FoulsContext
11.75
13.43
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
2.00
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.70
ShotsContext
14.90
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
30%
On target shareContext
38%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
65%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.40
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.20
BlocksContext
3.33
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
73%
Save rateContext
87%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
440
PassesContext
477
372
Accurate passesContext
412
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.05
13.20
FoulsContext
11.80
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km656 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Galatasaray
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 14Süper Lig 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 656 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
42Ö. Şahiner
18J. Kałuziński
25A. Harit
13Miguel Crespo
8O. Kemen
23D. Türüç
14E. Shomurodov
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
17E. Elmalı
42A. Bardakcı
23K. Ayhan
7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara
34L. Torreira
53B. Yılmaz
20İ. Gündoğan
10L. Sané
9M. Icardi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Galatasaray
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Galatasaray+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-0
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Galatasaray · Away
3.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Istanbul Basaksehir | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Besiktas | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Points | 6 of 18 · 1.00 per game | 16 of 18 · 2.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Istanbul Basaksehir wins0 draws4 Galatasaray wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 30 May 2025Galatasaray2–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 12 Jan 2025Istanbul Basaksehir1–2Galatasaray
- 10 Feb 2024Galatasaray2–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 23 Sep 2023Istanbul Basaksehir1–2Galatasaray
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.38 | |
| Match goals | 1.86 | 2.88 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 63% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 38% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 63% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 8 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.38 | |
| Match goals | 1.86 | 2.88 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 63% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 38% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 63% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.86 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 10.86 | 9.14 | 9.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 1.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.71 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 5.14 | 3.76 | 4.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 8.89 | 9.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 3.90 | 4.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.71league 4.67
Red cards0.14league 0.27
Cards 5+71%league 53%
Fouls24.8league 26.8
Penalties0.50league 0.30
Home wins50%league 36%
Istanbul Basaksehir1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W18 May 25A · Kasimpasa3–23
Galatasaray1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W10 May 25A · Trabzonspor2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Istanbul Basaksehir7 games · scored 6 · conceded 7
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
76-90
Galatasaray8 games · scored 20 · conceded 3
2
1
0-15
4
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 22 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
5
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
