Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were slight favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Galatasaray. Istanbul Basaksehir had 4.9 days of rest, Galatasaray 5.9 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days4.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Istanbul Basaksehir24%
Draw22%
Galatasaray54%
Istanbul Basaksehir28%
Draw25%
Galatasaray47%
Istanbul Basaksehir24%
Draw22%
Galatasaray54%
Istanbul Basaksehir19%
Draw20%
Galatasaray62%
Istanbul Basaksehir25%
Draw23%
Galatasaray53%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeKadir Saglam
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 19
Team strength
Istanbul Basaksehir
Galatasaray
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
32
AttackIn forecast
57
34
DefenceIn forecast
55
36
Form indexContext
63
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirGalatasaray
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
2.95
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.57
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
13.67
ShotsContext
27.33
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
9.33
27%
On target shareContext
34%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
19.33
51%
Box shareContext
76%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
—
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
9.67
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.00
BlocksContext
3.00
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
87%
Save rateContext
64%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
511
PassesContext
509
441
Accurate passesContext
447
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.96
Team ratingContext
7.22
14.33
FoulsContext
9.33
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
9.67
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.84
xGVia Att/Def
2.12
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.83
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
90%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.50
ShotsContext
17.80
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
32%
On target shareContext
35%
9.78
Shots in the boxContext
13.11
66%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.14
OffsidesContext
3.00
11.80
Shots allowedContext
9.40
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.33
BlocksContext
2.25
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
82%
Save rateContext
66%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
452
PassesContext
496
389
Accurate passesContext
429
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.80
FoulsContext
10.70
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
WLD
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 36 · 4 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 5.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,807 km | 2,098 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
98D. Dilmen(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
23E. Bayram
42Ö. Şahiner
20U. Güneş
18J. Kałuziński
11A. Fayzullaev
8O. Kemen
70A. Skov Olsen
14E. Shomurodov
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
4I. Jakobs
99M. Lemina
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara
34L. Torreira
10L. Sané
83A. Batrakov
11Y. Akgün
45V. Osimhen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
Absences are shown before kick-off
Galatasaray
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Galatasaray-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Galatasaray · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Istanbul Basaksehir wins0 draws6 Galatasaray wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.17
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 14 Mar 2026Galatasaray3–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 18 Oct 2025Istanbul Basaksehir1–2Galatasaray
- 30 May 2025Galatasaray2–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 12 Jan 2025Istanbul Basaksehir1–2Galatasaray
- 10 Feb 2024Galatasaray2–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 23 Sep 2023Istanbul Basaksehir1–2Galatasaray
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 4.33 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 100% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.70 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 7.00 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 2.33 | 3.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 7.30 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.50 | 3.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kadir Saglam Türkiye · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.16league 3.33
Red cards0.16league 0.15
Cards 5+58%league 33%
Fouls28.4league 25.9
Penalties0.32league 0.37
Home wins32%league 44%
Istanbul Basaksehir3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W21 Feb 26A · Alanyaspor2–15
- D17 Aug 25H · Kayserispor1–11
- L28 Apr 25A · Goztepe1–42
GalatasarayNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Istanbul Basaksehir3 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Galatasaray3 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
5
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 23 · conceded 14
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
6
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
