Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Istanbul Basaksehir
10th · 20 pts · 16 played
LLWDW
5–1Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep
7th · 23 pts · 16 played
DWLDL
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were slight favourites.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 22). Istanbul Basaksehir had 7.9 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 8.1 and had to travel 850 km.
Away travel850 kmRest days7.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Istanbul Basaksehir50%
Draw25%
Gazişehir Gaziantep25%
Istanbul Basaksehir50%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep25%
Istanbul Basaksehir50%
Draw25%
Gazişehir Gaziantep25%
Istanbul Basaksehir42%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep32%
Istanbul Basaksehir49%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep25%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Sansalan
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.62
- Matches 13
Team strength
Istanbul BasaksehirGazişehir Gaziantep
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
32
AttackIn forecast
15
34
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirGazişehir Gaziantep
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.44
1.06
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
81%
Scored inContext
69%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.19
ShotsContext
13.75
3.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
31%
On target shareContext
33%
7.93
Shots in the boxContext
8.06
61%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.69
Shots allowedContext
13.69
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.67
BlocksContext
3.31
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
77%
Save rateContext
68%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
421
PassesContext
399
355
Accurate passesContext
333
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.75
FoulsContext
12.88
14.06
Fouls sufferedContext
16.13
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
80%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.00
ShotsContext
14.80
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
31%
On target shareContext
36%
8.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
59%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.60
13.00
Shots allowedContext
13.70
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
4.00
BlocksContext
3.30
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
76%
Save rateContext
70%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
423
PassesContext
416
356
Accurate passesContext
352
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.50
FoulsContext
11.50
15.20
Fouls sufferedContext
16.20
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel850 km1,700 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 850 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,238 km | 1,700 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 26 | 26.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
42Ö. Şahiner
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
6O. Bulut
20U. Güneş
4O. Ergün
25A. Harit
14E. Shomurodov
11A. Fayzullaev
9D. Selke
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
20Z. Görgen(G)
4A. Kızıldağ
14L. Abena
17S. Güler
6M. Kabasakal
77K. Rodrigues
3D. Camara
10K. Kozłowski
2Luis Pérez
44A. Maxim
9M. Bayo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
1.00points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-2
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.29
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away
1.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-1
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Istanbul Basaksehir | Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | W 2–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 H | L 0–4 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 3–4 H | D 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Rizespor | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Konyaspor | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Besiktas | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Points | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game | 23 of 48 · 1.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Istanbul Basaksehir wins0 draws1 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 20 Apr 2025Istanbul Basaksehir2–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 23 Nov 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep3–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 24 Feb 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep0–2Istanbul Basaksehir
- 7 Oct 2023Istanbul Basaksehir2–0Gazişehir Gaziantep
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.06 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 2.44 | 3.00 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 69% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 31% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.69 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.94 | 10.34 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 81% 13/16 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 69% 11/16 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 10/16 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.44 | 3.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 5.19 | 6.57 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 81% 13/16 | 88% 14/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 10/16 | 81% 13/16 | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 6.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 11.55 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 6.20 | 4.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Sansalan Türkiye · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.77league 4.43
Red cards0.23league 0.25
Cards 5+62%league 46%
Fouls24.8league 25.7
Penalties0.62league 0.26
Home wins46%league 36%
Istanbul BasaksehirNo previous matches with this referee.
Gazişehir Gaziantep1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L8 Aug 25H · Galatasaray0–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Istanbul Basaksehir16 games · scored 22 · conceded 17
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep16 games · scored 23 · conceded 25
4
5
0-15
2
5
16-30
6
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
7
4
61-75
3
7
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
0-15
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
