Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack+21%
Defense risk−17%
Istanbul Basaksehir
13th · 8 pts · 7 played
DLLWD
2–1Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep
14th · 8 pts · 7 played
LWDLL
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were clear favourites.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 17). Istanbul Basaksehir had 7.2 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 7.1 and had to travel 850 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel850 kmRest days7.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Istanbul Basaksehir61%
Draw21%
Gazişehir Gaziantep18%
Istanbul Basaksehir59%
Draw23%
Gazişehir Gaziantep18%
Istanbul Basaksehir60%
Draw22%
Gazişehir Gaziantep18%
Istanbul Basaksehir53%
Draw24%
Gazişehir Gaziantep24%
Istanbul Basaksehir60%
Draw22%
Gazişehir Gaziantep18%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
14°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 13 km/h
- Humidity 75%
Referee · TürkiyeAlpaslan Sen
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Istanbul BasaksehirGazişehir Gaziantep
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
32
AttackIn forecast
15
35
DefenceIn forecast
18
20
Form indexContext
16
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGazişehir Gaziantep
Attack−2%
Defense risk+5%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirGazişehir Gaziantep
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
71%
Scored inContext
57%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
11.57
ShotsContext
13.00
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
32%
On target shareContext
27%
6.43
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
52%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.67
12.00
Shots allowedContext
13.17
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.43
BlocksContext
3.67
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
69%
Save rateContext
55%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
450
PassesContext
426
380
Accurate passesContext
351
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.14
FoulsContext
10.83
11.14
Fouls sufferedContext
15.50
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.30
ShotsContext
13.11
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
33%
On target shareContext
27%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
60%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.38
12.50
Shots allowedContext
13.22
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.70
BlocksContext
3.33
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
71%
Save rateContext
60%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
427
PassesContext
408
359
Accurate passesContext
335
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.90
FoulsContext
10.11
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
DLLWD
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km926 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 20 · 5 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -2.4 vs expected
Gazişehir Gaziantep
LWDLL
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel850 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 16 · 4 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Süper Lig 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 7.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 11 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 850 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 926 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
38S. Kharebashvili
27O. Ba
23E. Bayram
33M. Karbownik
18J. Kałuziński
8O. Kemen
77I. Brnić
14E. Shomurodov
70A. Skov Olsen
17U. Bozok
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
25K. Tobiasz(G)
21L. Sylla
14L. Abena
4A. Kızıldağ
2Luis Pérez
3D. Camara
61O. Özçiçek
8V. Gidado
18D. Sorescu
10K. Kozłowski
9T. Stewart
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
1 without recent minutes (no impact): E. Višća
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −0.7% · Defence line −3.8% of weighted minutes
- DEF N. Sangaré Rotation 6.74 Def −3.8%
- ATT F. Bavuk Depth 6.60 Att −0.7%
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Gazişehir Gaziantep-0.3 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Istanbul Basaksehir | Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
5 Istanbul Basaksehir wins0 draws1 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game2.17 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 16 May 2026Gazişehir Gaziantep1–2Istanbul Basaksehir
- 22 Dec 2025Istanbul Basaksehir5–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 20 Apr 2025Istanbul Basaksehir2–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 23 Nov 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep3–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 24 Feb 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep0–2Istanbul Basaksehir
- 7 Oct 2023Istanbul Basaksehir2–0Gazişehir Gaziantep
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.43 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.50 | 3.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 3.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.71 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 7.75 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 4.43 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 9.14 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alpaslan Sen Türkiye · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.83
Red cards0.00league 0.17
Cards 5+0%league 39%
Fouls25.0league 24.5
Penalties1.00league 0.36
Home wins0%league 47%
Istanbul BasaksehirNo previous matches with this referee.
Gazişehir Gaziantep1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D31 May 25A · Adana Demirspor2–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Istanbul Basaksehir7 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep7 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
4
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
2
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
