Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Istanbul Basaksehir
5th · 48 pts · 30 played
LDDWD
4–0Full time
Kasimpasa
13th · 31 pts · 30 played
WLWDW
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were slight favourites.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Istanbul Basaksehir. Istanbul Basaksehir had 5 days of rest, Kasimpasa 5.2 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days5 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Istanbul Basaksehir58%
Draw24%
Kasimpasa18%
Istanbul Basaksehir57%
Draw24%
Kasimpasa19%
Istanbul Basaksehir58%
Draw24%
Kasimpasa18%
Istanbul Basaksehir50%
Draw26%
Kasimpasa24%
Istanbul Basaksehir57%
Draw24%
Kasimpasa19%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeYigit Arslan
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 12
Team strength
Istanbul BasaksehirKasimpasa
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
32
AttackIn forecast
21
34
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirKasimpasa
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.97
1.03
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.37
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
67%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
13.03
ShotsContext
9.27
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.81
35%
On target shareContext
27%
9.04
Shots in the boxContext
5.55
65%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.90
12.33
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.07
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.75
BlocksContext
3.25
3.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.85
75%
Save rateContext
69%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
424
PassesContext
333
358
Accurate passesContext
258
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.73
FoulsContext
15.33
13.07
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.47
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
70%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.40
ShotsContext
7.80
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.60
35%
On target shareContext
33%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
4.40
68%
Box shareContext
55%
10%
ConversionContext
18%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.40
12.30
Shots allowedContext
10.80
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.60
BlocksContext
3.33
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
70%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
405
PassesContext
331
336
Accurate passesContext
250
83%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.68
12.70
FoulsContext
16.40
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
3.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Kasimpasa
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km656 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Kasimpasa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Apr | 5.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,807 km | 656 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
88K. Karataş
27O. Ba
5Léo Duarte
42Ö. Şahiner
20U. Güneş
8O. Kemen
25A. Harit
14E. Shomurodov
7Y. Sarı
91B. Yıldırım
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
21G. Frimpong
4Adem Arous
50Rodrigo Becão
2C. Winck Neto
16A. Baldursson
8Cafú
34F. Diabaté
26K. Demirbay
71İ. Kahveci
19A. Benedyczak
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kasimpasa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Kasimpasa+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
1.60points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-6-3
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 1.13
Kasimpasa · Away
0.93points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-7
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 1.53
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Istanbul Basaksehir | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | D 0–0 HW 4–0 A | D 0–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Goztepe | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Konyaspor | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Besiktas | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Rizespor | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | L 0–3 HW 2–1 A |
| Kayserispor | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 5–1 H | L 1–2 AL 2–3 H |
| Samsunspor | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Points | 45 of 87 · 1.55 per game | 31 of 87 · 1.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
4 Istanbul Basaksehir wins1 draws0 Kasimpasa wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.20
Over 2.5100%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 29 Nov 2025Kasimpasa1–3Istanbul Basaksehir
- 18 May 2025Kasimpasa2–3Istanbul Basaksehir
- 23 Dec 2024Istanbul Basaksehir2–2Kasimpasa
- 5 May 2024Istanbul Basaksehir4–1Kasimpasa
- 9 Jan 2024Kasimpasa0–3Istanbul Basaksehir
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.97 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.03 | 1.37 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.33 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 53% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 33% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.80 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.76 | 4.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.07 | 4.36 | |
| Match total | 9.83 | 8.50 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 17/29 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 15/29 | 32% 9/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 14/29 | 18% 5/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.27 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 2.37 | |
| Match total | 4.54 | 5.04 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 19/30 | 77% 23/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 14/30 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 2.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 6.60 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 3.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 6.40 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yigit Arslan 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.46
Red cards0.42league 0.22
Cards 5+33%league 46%
Fouls28.2league 26.1
Penalties0.33league 0.28
Home wins50%league 40%
Istanbul Basaksehir1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D31 Jan 26H · Rizespor2–21
Kasimpasa1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Nov 25A · Alanyaspor2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Istanbul Basaksehir30 games · scored 48 · conceded 31
5
0-15
7
2
16-30
9
8
31-45
7
4
46-60
9
9
61-75
11
8
76-90
Kasimpasa30 games · scored 29 · conceded 41
1
7
0-15
3
8
16-30
7
6
31-45
5
5
46-60
8
2
61-75
5
13
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
4
0-15
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
