Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were slight favourites.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 20). Istanbul Basaksehir usually keep the ball (52% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Istanbul Basaksehir had 7.1 days of rest, Kasimpasa 8.1 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7.1 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Istanbul Basaksehir59%
Draw22%
Kasimpasa19%
Istanbul Basaksehir58%
Draw22%
Kasimpasa19%
Istanbul Basaksehir59%
Draw22%
Kasimpasa19%
Istanbul Basaksehir52%
Draw24%
Kasimpasa24%
Istanbul Basaksehir59%
Draw22%
Kasimpasa19%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 39
Team strength
Istanbul Basaksehir
Kasimpasa
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
32
AttackIn forecast
21
34
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirKasimpasa
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.50
ShotsContext
7.50
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
31%
On target shareContext
33%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
4.00
60%
Box shareContext
53%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
—
OffsidesContext
—
13.50
Shots allowedContext
14.50
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
5.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
92%
Save rateContext
86%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
33%
446
PassesContext
290
380
Accurate passesContext
218
85%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.88
16.00
FoulsContext
15.00
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
80%
Scored inContext
90%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.00
ShotsContext
7.50
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.70
33%
On target shareContext
36%
10.89
Shots in the boxContext
3.70
72%
Box shareContext
50%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.75
11.30
Shots allowedContext
11.20
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.11
BlocksContext
2.33
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
85%
Save rateContext
70%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
436
PassesContext
318
373
Accurate passesContext
245
86%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.90
FoulsContext
13.70
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
WL
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 46 · 3 pts vs 3.5 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Kasimpasa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 23 Aug | 8.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,807 km | 1,016 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
23E. Bayram
42Ö. Şahiner
20U. Güneş
8O. Kemen
11A. Fayzullaev
14E. Shomurodov
70A. Skov Olsen
17U. Bozok
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
45A. Karapo
27M. Ilie
30Ahmet Taha Dağbaşı
4Adem Arous
2C. Winck Neto
51Elson Mendes
26K. Demirbay
16A. Baldursson
9A. Benedyczak
50G. Yalçın
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
Absences are shown before kick-off
Kasimpasa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Kasimpasa+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Kasimpasa · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Istanbul Basaksehir | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
5 Istanbul Basaksehir wins1 draws0 Kasimpasa wins
Goals per game3.17 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 24 Apr 2026Istanbul Basaksehir4–0Kasimpasa
- 29 Nov 2025Kasimpasa1–3Istanbul Basaksehir
- 18 May 2025Kasimpasa2–3Istanbul Basaksehir
- 23 Dec 2024Istanbul Basaksehir2–2Kasimpasa
- 5 May 2024Istanbul Basaksehir4–1Kasimpasa
- 9 Jan 2024Kasimpasa0–3Istanbul Basaksehir
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.70 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 10.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 13.00 | 8.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 0.00 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 2.50 | 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 8.11 | 8.95 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.41league 3.13
Red cards0.23league 0.17
Cards 5+46%league 30%
Fouls23.9league 25.9
Penalties0.33league 0.35
Home wins36%league 43%
Istanbul Basaksehir2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W8 Feb 26A · Eyüpspor2–11
- L24 Nov 25H · Trabzonspor3–43
Kasimpasa2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D18 Jan 26H · Antalyaspor0–03
- D5 May 25H · Trabzonspor1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Istanbul Basaksehir2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Kasimpasa2 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 17 · conceded 7
5
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
5
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
