Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were clear favourites.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Istanbul Basaksehir. Istanbul Basaksehir had 92 days of rest, Kocaelispor 91 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days92 · 91Matches / 14d0 · 0
Istanbul Basaksehir64%
Draw21%
Kocaelispor16%
Istanbul Basaksehir59%
Draw22%
Kocaelispor18%
Istanbul Basaksehir64%
Draw21%
Kocaelispor16%
Istanbul Basaksehir56%
Draw23%
Kocaelispor21%
Istanbul Basaksehir63%
Draw21%
Kocaelispor16%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 23
Team strength
Istanbul Basaksehir
Kocaelispor
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
32
AttackIn forecast
16
35
DefenceIn forecast
32
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Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirKocaelispor
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
—
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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—
Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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—
ShotsContext
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—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
70%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.50
ShotsContext
8.40
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.00
36%
On target shareContext
19%
10.75
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
75%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
6%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.70
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.67
BlocksContext
3.50
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
76%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
407
PassesContext
363
341
Accurate passesContext
292
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.66
11.60
FoulsContext
14.90
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest92 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kocaelispor
Rest91 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel197 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 92Süper Lig 2025-2026, 16 May | 91Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
23E. Bayram
42Ö. Şahiner
18J. Kałuziński
8O. Kemen
11A. Fayzullaev
14E. Shomurodov
70A. Skov Olsen
91B. Yıldırım
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
83S. Öztaşdelen(G)
21M. Haïdara
2A. Dijksteel
4B. Zoukrou
99R. Rivas
10B. Kutlu
14Show
22U. Yıldız
75T. Bingöl
32M. Baku
7Daniel Agyei
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Kocaelispor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
No home games yet this season.
Kocaelispor · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Istanbul Basaksehir wins1 draws0 Kocaelispor wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 50%
- 6 Apr 2026Kocaelispor0–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 31 Oct 2025Istanbul Basaksehir1–0Kocaelispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 51% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.80 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 20% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.75 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 2.50 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 6.89 | 10.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.30 | 2.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.30league 3.00
Red cards0.09league 0.20
Cards 5+22%league 40%
Fouls24.6league 23.6
Penalties0.22league 0.40
Home wins48%league 20%
Istanbul Basaksehir1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L15 Feb 26H · Besiktas2–33
Kocaelispor4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L26 Apr 26A · Genclerbirligi0–11
- L20 Feb 26A · Rizespor0–23
- W25 Oct 25H · Alanyaspor2–00
- L23 Aug 25A · Fenerbahce1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Istanbul BasaksehirKocaelisporIstanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
5
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 5 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
