Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Istanbul Basaksehir
7th · 29 pts · 19 played
DWWWW
2–2Full time
Rizespor
13th · 19 pts · 19 played
DWLLD
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were slight favourites.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Istanbul Basaksehir. Istanbul Basaksehir had 7.1 days of rest, Rizespor 6 and had to travel 970 km.
Away travel970 kmRest days7.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Istanbul Basaksehir59%
Draw23%
Rizespor18%
Istanbul Basaksehir56%
Draw24%
Rizespor20%
Istanbul Basaksehir58%
Draw23%
Rizespor19%
Istanbul Basaksehir52%
Draw25%
Rizespor23%
Istanbul Basaksehir58%
Draw23%
Rizespor18%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeYigit Arslan
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 9
Team strength
Istanbul BasaksehirRizespor
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
32
AttackIn forecast
22
34
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirRizespor
1.68
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.16
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.47
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
84%
Scored inContext
74%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
12.47
ShotsContext
11.58
4.26
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.05
34%
On target shareContext
26%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.42
64%
Box shareContext
53%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.77
OffsidesContext
2.07
12.37
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.37
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.24
3.76
BlocksContext
3.94
3.37
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.81
77%
Save rateContext
70%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
431
PassesContext
380
366
Accurate passesContext
310
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.63
FoulsContext
13.53
13.42
Fouls sufferedContext
11.53
2.16
Yellow cardsContext
2.58
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.89
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
100%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.30
ShotsContext
11.10
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
36%
On target shareContext
26%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
69%
Box shareContext
49%
18%
ConversionContext
11%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.63
12.40
Shots allowedContext
15.30
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.38
4.13
BlocksContext
4.50
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
78%
Save rateContext
71%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
436
PassesContext
373
374
Accurate passesContext
304
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.71
13.20
FoulsContext
12.80
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,225 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rizespor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel970 km2,359 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 970 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,225 km | 2,359 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
42Ö. Şahiner
20U. Güneş
8O. Kemen
25A. Harit
14E. Shomurodov
11A. Fayzullaev
9D. Selke
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
1E. Canpolat(G)
5C. Højer
3S. Akaydin
4A. Mocsi
37M. Şahin
20Q. Laçi
14T. Antalyalı
77A. Zeqiri
7V. Mihăilă
10I. Olawoyin
9A. Sowe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rizespor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Rizespor-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
1.44points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.22
Rizespor · Away
0.89points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-3
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Istanbul Basaksehir | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 5–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Samsunspor | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 H | L 2–5 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 3–4 H | L 1–2 H |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 4–0 A | W 5–2 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Konyaspor | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Besiktas | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 0–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 28 of 54 · 1.56 per game | 18 of 54 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Istanbul Basaksehir wins2 draws1 Rizespor wins
Goals per game1.40 – 0.80
Over 2.520%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets60% · 20%
- 22 Oct 2025Rizespor0–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 18 Jan 2025Istanbul Basaksehir2–0Rizespor
- 12 Aug 2024Rizespor1–1Istanbul Basaksehir
- 21 Apr 2024Istanbul Basaksehir2–0Rizespor
- 2 Dec 2023Rizespor3–2Istanbul Basaksehir
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.68 | 1.16 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.47 | |
| Match goals | 2.68 | 2.63 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 47% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 58% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 26% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.70 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.53 | 4.94 | |
| Match total | 10.53 | 8.53 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 74% 14/19 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 12/19 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 58% 11/19 | 24% 4/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.32 | 2.68 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.74 | 1.95 | |
| Match total | 5.06 | 4.63 | 4.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 15/19 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 11/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 9.00 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.60 | 4.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yigit Arslan 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.56league 4.37
Red cards0.56league 0.24
Cards 5+44%league 44%
Fouls27.7league 25.8
Penalties0.44league 0.26
Home wins44%league 35%
Istanbul BasaksehirNo previous matches with this referee.
Rizespor2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W13 Dec 25H · Eyüpspor3–03
- D19 Aug 23H · Alanyaspor0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Istanbul Basaksehir19 games · scored 32 · conceded 19
1
0-15
6
2
16-30
5
5
31-45
5
2
46-60
6
5
61-75
9
5
76-90
Rizespor19 games · scored 22 · conceded 28
4
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
1
6
61-75
6
9
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
9
4
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
