Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Istanbul Basaksehir
6th · 51 pts · 32 played
DWDWL
3–0Full time
Samsunspor
7th · 48 pts · 32 played
LWWWW
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Samsunspor. Istanbul Basaksehir had 7 days of rest, Samsunspor 7 and had to travel 619 km.
Away travel619 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Istanbul Basaksehir45%
Draw25%
Samsunspor31%
Istanbul Basaksehir46%
Draw26%
Samsunspor27%
Istanbul Basaksehir43%
Draw25%
Samsunspor32%
Istanbul Basaksehir37%
Draw25%
Samsunspor38%
Istanbul Basaksehir44%
Draw26%
Samsunspor30%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeGurcan Hasova
- Cards per match 6.2
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 6
Team strength
Istanbul BasaksehirSamsunspor
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
32
AttackIn forecast
15
34
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSamsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirSamsunspor
1.66
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.34
1.06
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
81%
Scored inContext
75%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.06
ShotsContext
12.63
4.59
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.45
35%
On target shareContext
32%
9.17
Shots in the boxContext
7.91
67%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.29
12.41
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.16
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.55
3.90
BlocksContext
3.39
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.65
75%
Save rateContext
68%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
429
PassesContext
427
363
Accurate passesContext
358
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.44
FoulsContext
14.59
12.91
Fouls sufferedContext
11.53
2.16
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.71
70%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.10
ShotsContext
12.90
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
34%
On target shareContext
42%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
72%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.78
13.20
Shots allowedContext
12.20
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.33
BlocksContext
3.70
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
74%
Save rateContext
61%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
418
PassesContext
445
350
Accurate passesContext
375
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.60
FoulsContext
14.50
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
3.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Samsunspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel619 km1,375 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Samsunspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 2 May | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 619 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,375 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
88K. Karataş
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
42Ö. Şahiner
25A. Harit
13Miguel Crespo
8O. Kemen
7Y. Sarı
14E. Shomurodov
91B. Yıldırım
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
4R. van Drongelen
37Ľ. Šatka
2J. Mendes
29A. Makoumbou
21C. Holse
9Marius
55Y. Çift
7E. Tavşan
19P. Ndiaye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
Absences are shown before kick-off
Samsunspor
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir+1.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Samsunspor-1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
1.69points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-6-3
- Scored
- 1.88
- Conceded
- 1.06
Samsunspor · Away
1.44points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-5
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Istanbul Basaksehir | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 4–0 HW 3–1 A | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 AL 3–4 H | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | D 0–0 HW 4–0 A | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H | W 4–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Goztepe | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Konyaspor | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 3–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Rizespor | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | L 1–4 AD 1–1 H |
| Kayserispor | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 5–1 H | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Points | 48 of 93 · 1.55 per game | 48 of 93 · 1.55 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Istanbul Basaksehir wins1 draws1 Samsunspor wins
Goals per game1.40 – 0.40
Over 2.520%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets80% · 40%
- 14 Dec 2025Samsunspor0–2Istanbul Basaksehir
- 1 Feb 2025Istanbul Basaksehir4–0Samsunspor
- 18 Sep 2024Samsunspor2–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 3 Mar 2024Istanbul Basaksehir1–0Samsunspor
- 22 Oct 2023Samsunspor0–0Istanbul Basaksehir
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.66 | 1.34 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.06 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 2.72 | 2.66 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 53% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 34% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 66% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 25% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.30 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.65 | 5.39 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 4.52 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 9.91 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 18/31 | 65% 20/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 16/31 | 45% 14/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 15/31 | 39% 12/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.28 | 2.19 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.94 | |
| Match total | 4.53 | 4.13 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 66% 21/32 | 59% 19/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 15/32 | 41% 13/32 | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.30 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 11.10 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 5.30 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gurcan Hasova Türkiye · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.00league 4.43
Red cards0.17league 0.22
Cards 5+100%league 45%
Fouls23.5league 26.0
Penalties0.50league 0.28
Home wins50%league 41%
Istanbul Basaksehir1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L25 May 25H · Adana Demirspor2–33
Samsunspor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W19 Apr 26H · Besiktas2–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Istanbul Basaksehir32 games · scored 53 · conceded 34
6
0-15
8
3
16-30
10
8
31-45
7
5
46-60
9
10
61-75
13
8
76-90
Samsunspor32 games · scored 43 · conceded 42
6
4
0-15
3
7
16-30
7
7
31-45
8
6
46-60
6
4
61-75
13
14
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 20 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
61-75
6
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
