Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen – 17 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 17 · 20:00 Allianz Stadium, Torino

Juventus

5–0Full time

NEC Nijmegen

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus were clear favourites.

Juventus were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 35). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Juventus. Juventus had 4 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 5 and had to travel 765 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel765 kmRest days4 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 3

Juventus68%

Draw18%

NEC Nijmegen14%

Expected goals 2.36 – 1.00

Juventus64%

Draw20%

NEC Nijmegen15%

Expected goals 2.04 – 0.88

Juventus69%

Draw18%

NEC Nijmegen14%

Expected goals 2.36 – 0.95

Juventus60%

Draw21%

NEC Nijmegen19%

Expected goals 2.10 – 1.12

Juventus67%

Draw19%

NEC Nijmegen15%

Expected goals 2.27 – 0.96

Over 2.5 65% Both score 57% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Torino)

21°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 77%

RefereeOleksiy Derevinskyi

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 37

Team strength

Juventus

NEC Nijmegen

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

57 AttackIn forecast 37

76 DefenceIn forecast 33

56 Form indexContext 32

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

NEC Nijmegen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Juventus

NEC Nijmegen

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 2.38

0.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.69

-0.39 Goals minus xGContext -0.98

80% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

18.00 ShotsContext 14.30

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

32% On target shareContext 30%

11.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

62% Box shareContext 58%

7% ConversionContext 10%

2.63 OffsidesContext 3.29

8.00 Shots allowedContext 11.80

3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

2.00 BlocksContext 2.60

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

74% Save rateContext 59%

59% PossessionIn forecast 57%

490 PassesContext 481

423 Accurate passesContext 388

86% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.68

13.30 FoulsContext 12.00

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Juventus WWDL

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km471 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 56 · 7 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected

L13 SepA · Sassuolo2–31.6 xPts
D6 SepH · AC Milan1–11.8 xPts
W29 AugH · Parma2–02.3 xPts
W23 AugA · Frosinone1–02.0 xPts

NEC Nijmegen WWLDL

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel765 km303 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

Form 32 · 7 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

L12 SepA · Cambuur0–31.7 xPts
D8 SepH · Excelsior2–21.8 xPts
L5 SepH · Feyenoord1–31.4 xPts
W29 AugA · PEC Zwolle3–11.7 xPts
W15 AugA · Willem II4–12.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Juventus	NEC Nijmegen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Serie A 2026-2027, 13 Sep	5Eredivisie 2026-2027, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	765 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	471 km	303 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Juventus Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1K. Grabara(G)

26J. Lucumí 4F. Gatti 15P. Kalulu

22W. McKennie 29P. Sarr 12Douglas Luiz 2M. Çelik

17Kerim Alajbegović 31N. González

27N. Woltemade

+12 more reported missing outside this XI

NEC Nijmegen Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

12N. Polster(G)

66A. Kabar 3P. Sandler 21T. Storm

77A. Thomas 20N. Lebreton 6D. Nejašmić 99Clement Bischoff

10D. Tadić 9T. Chery

30B. Linssen

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Juventus Scores -0.10 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

NEC Nijmegen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Juventus-1.1 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
NEC Nijmegen+0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Juventus · Home No home games yet this season.

NEC Nijmegen · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Juventus	NEC Nijmegen	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.35
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	65%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Juventus	NEC Nijmegen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.40
Conceded per game	0.90	1.90
Match goals	2.10	3.30	3.35
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	20%	90%	65%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	57%
Clean sheets	50%	10%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Juventus	NEC Nijmegen	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.70
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.10
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Juventus	NEC Nijmegen	League
Corners
Corners won	8.00	4.40
Corners conceded	2.00	3.40
Match total	10.00	7.80	10.70
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.80
Opponent cards	2.10	1.80
Match total	3.70	3.60	3.10
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Oleksiy Derevinskyi 37 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.86league 3.27

Red cards0.22league 0.00

Cards 5+41%league 45%

Fouls21.0league 25.0

Penalties0.16league 0.09

Home wins46%league 45%

Juventus

No previous matches with this referee.

NEC Nijmegen

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.