Kairat Almaty
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs
Play-offs Thu, Aug 20 · 16:00
Ortalyq stadıon, Almaty
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel5,337 kmRest days9 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 4
Real contextStrength only
Kairat Almaty—%
Draw—%
Anderlecht—%
Weather (Almaty)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 167
Team strength
Kairat Almaty
Anderlecht
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
12
AttackIn forecast
37
15
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Kairat AlmatyAnderlecht
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
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—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
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—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
2.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
60%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
8.80
ShotsContext
17.00
2.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.14
27%
On target shareContext
36%
5.75
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
54%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
—
OffsidesContext
1.50
17.00
Shots allowedContext
11.29
6.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.71
3.40
BlocksContext
4.33
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.86
65%
Save rateContext
50%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
415
PassesContext
450
322
Accurate passesContext
368
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.46
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.00
FoulsContext
14.50
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.63
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kairat Almaty
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kairat Almaty |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Critical · 65 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 11 Aug | 4.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 5,337 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 3,735 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 2 / 4 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kairat Almaty
Confirmed XI
1T. Anarbekov(G)
3Luís Mata
44L. da Silva
25A. Shirobokov
20E. Tapalov
19O. Jukkola
22Gustavo Mendonça
13J. Oksanen
24A. Mrynskiy
28Marc Gual
9Edmilson
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
4G. Biancone
27L. Pétrot
79A. Maamar
24E. Llansana
55M. Kana
18L. Ambros
61J. Bethume
14D. Sikan
9M. CvetkoviÄ
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kairat Almaty
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
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Home / Away this season
Kairat Almaty · Home
No home games yet this season.
Anderlecht · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Kairat Almaty | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Kairat Almaty | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.25 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 3.20 | |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 20% | |
| Games | 4 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kairat Almaty | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Kairat Almaty | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.71 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 8.85 | |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.70 | |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 167 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.89
Red cards0.13
Cards 5+38%
Fouls21.9
Penalties0.22
Home wins41%
Kairat Almaty1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D21 Oct 25H · Pafos0–03
AnderlechtNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kairat AlmatyAnderlechtKairat Almaty10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
7
3
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
3
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.