Kairat Almaty
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Aug 11 · 16:00
Ortalyq stadıon, Almaty
Kairat Almaty
16th · 3 pts · 3 played
LWL
First leg0–1
0–1Full time
Levski Sofia
2nd · 11 pts · 5 played
DWWDW
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel4,283 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Kairat Almaty—%
Draw—%
Levski Sofia—%
Weather (Almaty)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 129
Team strength
Kairat AlmatyLevski Sofia
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
12
AttackIn forecast
24
15
DefenceIn forecast
26
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevski Sofia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Kairat AlmatyLevski Sofia
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
60%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
33%
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
33%
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.01
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.64
xGVia Att/Def
—
2.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
—
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
6.20
ShotsContext
11.00
1.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
29%
On target shareContext
30%
3.25
Shots in the boxContext
—
48%
Box shareContext
—
19%
ConversionContext
15%
—
OffsidesContext
—
19.80
Shots allowedContext
9.67
8.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
4.00
BlocksContext
—
5.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
66%
Save rateContext
54%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
376
PassesContext
—
281
Accurate passesContext
—
75%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.45
Team ratingContext
—
11.00
FoulsContext
—
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
—
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kairat Almaty
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km8,566 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Levski Sofia
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel4,283 km368 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kairat Almaty |
Levski Sofia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 4 Aug | 6.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 4 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 4,283 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 8,566 km | 368 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kairat Almaty
Confirmed XI
1T. Anarbekov(G)
3Luís Mata
44L. da Silva
25A. Shirobokov
4D. Kasabulat
13J. Oksanen
8O. Baybek
19O. Jukkola
22Gustavo Mendonça
24A. Mrynskiy
28Marc Gual
Levski Sofia
Confirmed XI
92S. Vutsov(G)
20Álex Centelles
31N. Serafimov
50K. Dimitrov
21Aldair
19E. El Moubarik
18G. Trdin
17Everton Bala
35Serginho
11A. Oko-Flex
7Reinaldo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kairat Almaty
Absences are shown before kick-off
Levski Sofia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Kairat Almaty · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Levski Sofia · Away
1.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Kairat Almaty wins0 draws1 Levski Sofia wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 4 Aug 2026Levski Sofia1–0Kairat Almaty
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kairat Almaty | Levski Sofia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.40 | |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 40% | |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 5 |
| Kairat Almaty | Levski Sofia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 2.40 | |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 40% | |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kairat Almaty | Levski Sofia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | — | 2.00 | |
| Match total | — | 9.00 | 10.10 |
| Over 8.5 | — | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | — | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | — | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Kairat Almaty | Levski Sofia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 6.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.50 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.00 | 10.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 129 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.43league 4.23
Red cards0.22league 0.23
Cards 5+51%league 41%
Fouls23.0league 25.5
Penalties0.29league 0.33
Home wins43%league 52%
Kairat AlmatyNo previous matches with this referee.
Levski SofiaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kairat Almaty5 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Levski Sofia5 games · scored 9 · conceded 3
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Kairat Almaty10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
7
3
76-90
Levski Sofia10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.