Kairat Almaty
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Wed, Jul 29 · 16:00
Ortalyq stadıon, Almaty
Kairat Almaty
19th · 0 pts · 1 played
L
First leg0–1
1–0Full time
Omonia Nicosia
10th · 3 pts · 1 played
W
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel3,813 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Kairat Almaty—%
Draw—%
Omonia Nicosia—%
Weather (Almaty)
No weather data yet
RefereeRohit Saggi
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 28
Team strength
Kairat AlmatyOmonia Nicosia
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
12
AttackIn forecast
34
15
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOmonia Nicosia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Kairat AlmatyOmonia Nicosia
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
67%
Scored inContext
—
33%
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
—
0.00
Red cardsContext
—
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
2.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
60%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.14
ShotsContext
10.50
2.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
23%
On target shareContext
36%
4.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.86
45%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.14
17.86
Shots allowedContext
12.38
8.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.38
3.29
BlocksContext
4.43
5.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
66%
Save rateContext
74%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
384
PassesContext
378
295
Accurate passesContext
302
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.29
FoulsContext
10.88
11.86
Fouls sufferedContext
13.63
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kairat Almaty
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km7,627 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Omonia Nicosia
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel3,813 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kairat Almaty |
Omonia Nicosia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 22 Jul | 6.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 22 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 3,813 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 7,627 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kairat Almaty
Confirmed XI
1T. Anarbekov(G)
3Luís Mata
44L. da Silva
14A. Martynovich
24A. Mrynskiy
22Gustavo Mendonça
4D. Kasabulat
5L. Kurgin
13J. Oksanen
19O. Jukkola
28Marc Gual
Omonia Nicosia
Confirmed XI
40Fabiano(G)
29J. Balkovec
30N. Panagiotou
5S. Coulibaly
27S. Simič
21M. Mayambela
14M. Marić
74P. Andreou
11Ewandro
22M. Tankovic
9A. Kakoullis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kairat Almaty
Absences are shown before kick-off
Omonia Nicosia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Kairat Almaty · Home
No home games yet this season.
Omonia Nicosia · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Kairat Almaty wins0 draws1 Omonia Nicosia wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 22 Jul 2026Omonia Nicosia1–0Kairat Almaty
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kairat Almaty | Omonia Nicosia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Kairat Almaty | Omonia Nicosia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kairat Almaty | Omonia Nicosia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.33 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Kairat Almaty | Omonia Nicosia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.75 | 4.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.75 | 3.63 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.01 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 5.10 | 4.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rohit Saggi 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.36league 4.17
Red cards0.29league 0.25
Cards 5+54%league 38%
Fouls25.6league 26.3
Penalties0.21league 0.33
Home wins50%league 48%
Kairat AlmatyNo previous matches with this referee.
Omonia NicosiaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kairat Almaty3 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Omonia Nicosia1 games · scored 1 · conceded 0
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Kairat Almaty10 games · scored 10 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
7
4
76-90
Omonia Nicosia10 games · scored 10 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.