Kasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Alanyaspor. Kasimpasa had 6.9 days of rest, Alanyaspor 7.9 and had to travel 563 km.
Away travel563 kmRest days6.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Kasimpasa35%
Draw29%
Alanyaspor36%
Kasimpasa38%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor34%
Kasimpasa36%
Draw29%
Alanyaspor35%
Kasimpasa29%
Draw28%
Alanyaspor43%
Kasimpasa35%
Draw29%
Alanyaspor36%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Aksu
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 10
Team strength
Kasimpasa
Alanyaspor
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
21
AttackIn forecast
18
32
DefenceIn forecast
24
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KasimpasaAlanyaspor
0.97
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.21
1.41
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
66%
Scored inContext
76%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
9.34
ShotsContext
12.03
2.85
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.86
27%
On target shareContext
32%
5.64
Shots in the boxContext
7.59
58%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.52
Shots allowedContext
10.55
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.93
3.33
BlocksContext
2.78
2.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
68%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
331
PassesContext
392
256
Accurate passesContext
329
77%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.85
15.48
FoulsContext
11.90
13.03
Fouls sufferedContext
14.31
2.48
Yellow cardsContext
2.34
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.20
ShotsContext
12.30
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
31%
On target shareContext
33%
4.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
54%
Box shareContext
63%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.43
10.80
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.67
BlocksContext
2.80
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
63%
Save rateContext
59%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
337
PassesContext
381
257
Accurate passesContext
318
76%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.88
17.30
FoulsContext
11.10
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
3.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km656 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alanyaspor
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel563 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Alanyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 12 Apr | 7.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 563 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 656 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
21G. Frimpong
4Adem Arous
20N. Opoku
2C. Winck Neto
16A. Baldursson
8Cafú
12A. Ben Ouanes
34F. Diabaté
71İ. Kahveci
19A. Benedyczak
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
48Paulo Victor(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
3Nuno Lima
20F. Aksoy
11Ruan
17N. Janvier
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
16U. Hwang
10G. Yalçın
27Ibrahim Kaya
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alanyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kasimpasa-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Alanyaspor+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
1.00points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-6
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.29
Alanyaspor · Away
0.93points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-10-3
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kasimpasa | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Goztepe | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Kayserispor | W 2–0 HL 2–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| Besiktas | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Rizespor | L 0–3 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | L 2–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 1–2 AL 2–3 H | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Samsunspor | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | D 0–0 HL 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 A | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 A | W 5–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–3 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 25 of 84 · 0.89 per game | 33 of 84 · 1.18 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
4 Kasimpasa wins1 draws0 Alanyaspor wins
Goals per game2.20 – 1.40
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 23 Nov 2025Alanyaspor1–2Kasimpasa
- 15 Mar 2025Kasimpasa2–1Alanyaspor
- 20 Oct 2024Alanyaspor1–2Kasimpasa
- 4 Feb 2024Kasimpasa2–1Alanyaspor
- 17 Sep 2023Alanyaspor3–3Kasimpasa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.97 | 1.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.41 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 45% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 62% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 34% | 24% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Kasimpasa | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.07 | 4.68 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.48 | 3.52 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 8.20 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 12/27 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 9/27 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 19% 5/27 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.69 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.31 | 2.07 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.45 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 22/29 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 13/29 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Kasimpasa | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.70 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 6.40 | 7.11 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.60 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 6.20 | 5.00 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Aksu Türkiye · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.50league 4.45
Red cards0.10league 0.22
Cards 5+0%league 45%
Fouls22.7league 26.2
Penalties0.10league 0.28
Home wins40%league 39%
Kasimpasa1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W13 Sep 25A · Fatih Karagümrük1–04
Alanyaspor2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L31 Jan 26H · Eyüpspor1–32
- D3 Nov 25H · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa29 games · scored 28 · conceded 41
1
7
0-15
3
8
16-30
7
6
31-45
4
5
46-60
8
2
61-75
5
13
76-90
Alanyaspor29 games · scored 35 · conceded 34
6
6
0-15
5
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
9
46-60
6
5
61-75
10
9
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
7
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
