Kasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Amed were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kasimpasa. Kasimpasa had 6.8 days of rest, Amed 5.8 and had to travel 1,026 km.
Away travel1,026 kmRest days6.8 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Kasimpasa39%
Draw27%
Amed34%
Kasimpasa38%
Draw26%
Amed36%
Kasimpasa39%
Draw27%
Amed34%
Kasimpasa32%
Draw27%
Amed41%
Kasimpasa40%
Draw26%
Amed34%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 25
Team strength
Kasimpasa
Amed
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
21
AttackIn forecast
38
32
DefenceIn forecast
46
54
Form indexContext
54
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAmed
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KasimpasaAmed
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
100%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.00
ShotsContext
14.00
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
30%
On target shareContext
31%
4.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
49%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.67
Shots allowedContext
8.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.67
BlocksContext
2.50
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
78%
Save rateContext
67%
33%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
312
PassesContext
419
237
Accurate passesContext
350
76%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.87
14.33
FoulsContext
14.67
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
90%
Scored inContext
67%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.20
ShotsContext
14.00
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
35%
On target shareContext
31%
4.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
51%
Box shareContext
56%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.10
Shots allowedContext
8.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.22
BlocksContext
—
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
69%
Save rateContext
67%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
311
PassesContext
419
238
Accurate passesContext
350
77%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.60
FoulsContext
14.67
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
DWD
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 54 · 5 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · +2.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Amed |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 5.8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,026 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 2,234 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
45A. Karapo
27M. Ilie
4Adem Arous
2C. Winck Neto
26K. Demirbay
16A. Baldursson
7A. Kol
19M. Rafferty
50G. Yalçın
9A. Benedyczak
Amed
Confirmed XI
40A. Lafont(G)
5L. Dellova
4D. Bates
33A. Cissé
17C. Meraş
18G. Gül
22R. Raveloson
7E. Krasniqi
10S. Ballet
45M. Diagne
91D. Sabi'a
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Amed
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kasimpasa+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Amed+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Amed · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Kasimpasa | Amed |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Amed | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 2.67 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 67% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Kasimpasa | Amed | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.67 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 67% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 33% | |
| Games | 10 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Amed | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 8.33 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.34 | 3.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Kasimpasa | Amed | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.11 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.44 | 8.33 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.34 | 3.70 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 1/3 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.48league 3.57
Red cards0.16league 0.17
Cards 5+32%league 40%
Fouls26.7league 26.4
Penalties0.44league 0.37
Home wins40%league 43%
Kasimpasa2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D12 Dec 25H · Genclerbirligi0–02
- D21 Sep 25H · Fenerbahce1–14
AmedNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa3 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Amed3 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
5
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Amed3 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
