Kasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 22). Absences weigh more on Besiktas. Kasimpasa had 6 days of rest, Besiktas 4 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days6 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 2
Kasimpasa34%
Draw27%
Besiktas39%
Kasimpasa33%
Draw27%
Besiktas39%
Kasimpasa33%
Draw27%
Besiktas40%
Kasimpasa27%
Draw26%
Besiktas47%
Kasimpasa34%
Draw27%
Besiktas39%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 6
Team strength
Kasimpasa
Besiktas
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
21
AttackIn forecast
60
32
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBesiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KasimpasaBesiktas
0.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.22
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.88
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
67%
Scored inContext
78%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
11.44
ShotsContext
13.22
2.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
20%
On target shareContext
40%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
58%
Box shareContext
75%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.63
11.11
Shots allowedContext
10.44
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.78
3.25
BlocksContext
2.63
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.88
73%
Save rateContext
63%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
331
PassesContext
400
260
Accurate passesContext
329
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.81
15.44
FoulsContext
14.11
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
2.44
Yellow cardsContext
2.44
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.42
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.10
ShotsContext
12.40
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
22%
On target shareContext
36%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
58%
Box shareContext
75%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.56
11.40
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.11
BlocksContext
3.33
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
69%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
348
PassesContext
427
275
Accurate passesContext
348
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.85
14.30
FoulsContext
13.40
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Besiktas
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km926 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Besiktas |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 20 Oct | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 926 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
41A. Szalai
20N. Opoku
14J. Espinoza
21G. Frimpong
8Cafú
16A. Baldursson
2C. Winck Neto
7M. Fall
17K. Kanatsızkuş
34F. Diabaté
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
33R. Yılmaz
53E. Topçu
35Tiago Djaló
25G. Sazdagi
10O. Kökçü
4O. Ndidi
19E. Touré
18V. Černý
11C. Ünder
9T. Abraham
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Besiktas
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kasimpasa+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Besiktas-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
0.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Besiktas · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Kasimpasa | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Kasimpasa wins1 draws0 Besiktas wins
Goals per game2.25 – 1.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 7 Apr 2025Kasimpasa1–1Besiktas
- 2 Nov 2024Besiktas1–3Kasimpasa
- 26 May 2024Kasimpasa2–1Besiktas
- 5 Jan 2024Besiktas1–3Kasimpasa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.22 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 2.11 | 2.89 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Kasimpasa | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.22 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 2.11 | 2.89 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 11.56 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 5.23 | 5.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Kasimpasa | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 11.10 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 5.30 | 5.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 4.76
Red cards0.17league 0.29
Cards 5+67%league 56%
Fouls26.2league 26.4
Penalties0.50league 0.28
Home wins33%league 38%
Kasimpasa1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W10 May 25A · Eyüpspor3–03
Besiktas2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W24 Sep 25A · Kayserispor4–02
- W25 Apr 25H · Hatayspor5–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa9 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Besiktas9 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
