Kasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Kasimpasa were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Kasimpasa. Kasimpasa had 7 days of rest, Eyüpspor 6 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Kasimpasa44%
Draw27%
Eyüpspor29%
Kasimpasa42%
Draw27%
Eyüpspor31%
Kasimpasa45%
Draw27%
Eyüpspor28%
Kasimpasa37%
Draw28%
Eyüpspor35%
Kasimpasa45%
Draw27%
Eyüpspor28%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 17
Team strength
Kasimpasa
Eyüpspor
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
21
AttackIn forecast
9
32
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KasimpasaEyüpspor
0.84
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.76
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
60%
Scored inContext
52%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.64
ShotsContext
10.40
2.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
27%
On target shareContext
34%
5.96
Shots in the boxContext
6.57
60%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
1.95
OffsidesContext
2.52
11.80
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.92
3.52
BlocksContext
4.13
2.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
69%
Save rateContext
72%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
331
PassesContext
381
258
Accurate passesContext
311
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.78
15.52
FoulsContext
11.52
12.76
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
2.32
Yellow cardsContext
2.12
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.97
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
50%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.00
ShotsContext
8.80
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.63
30%
On target shareContext
33%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
62%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.10
12.00
Shots allowedContext
16.20
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
4.22
BlocksContext
4.60
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
65%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
344
PassesContext
381
268
Accurate passesContext
308
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.75
16.70
FoulsContext
11.50
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km926 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eyüpspor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Eyüpspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Mar | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 926 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
22K. Çörekçi
4Adem Arous
50Rodrigo Becão
2C. Winck Neto
16A. Baldursson
8Cafú
12A. Ben Ouanes
34F. Diabaté
71İ. Kahveci
19A. Benedyczak
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
24J. Yılmaz(G)
77C. Meraş
5B. Ozyurt
68J. Onguéné
17Talha Ülvan
55B. Gezek
28T. İlter
23L. Pintor
8E. Akbaba
26Metehan Altunbaş
19U. Bozok
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eyüpspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kasimpasa-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Eyüpspor+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
0.67points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-6
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Eyüpspor · Away
0.75points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-7
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kasimpasa | Eyüpspor |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H |
| Rizespor | L 0–3 HW 2–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 1–2 AL 2–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Samsunspor | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Antalyaspor | D 0–0 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 A | L 1–5 AL 0–2 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–3 H | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Kayserispor | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 21 of 72 · 0.88 per game | 19 of 72 · 0.79 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Kasimpasa wins0 draws1 Eyüpspor wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets67% · 33%
- 20 Oct 2025Eyüpspor2–0Kasimpasa
- 10 May 2025Eyüpspor0–3Kasimpasa
- 13 Dec 2024Kasimpasa2–0Eyüpspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.84 | 0.76 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.28 | 2.20 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 44% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 48% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Kasimpasa | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.70 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.43 | 3.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.61 | 5.23 | |
| Match total | 9.04 | 9.18 | 9.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 11/23 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 8/23 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 5/23 | 27% 6/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.48 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.32 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.16 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 18/25 | 56% 14/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 10/25 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Kasimpasa | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 2.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 7.56 | 9.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 3.40 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.12league 4.43
Red cards0.12league 0.21
Cards 5+47%league 45%
Fouls24.5league 25.9
Penalties0.29league 0.27
Home wins53%league 38%
Kasimpasa1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L23 Jan 26A · Trabzonspor1–22
Eyüpspor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L20 Dec 25H · Fenerbahce0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa25 games · scored 21 · conceded 36
6
0-15
3
7
16-30
5
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
7
2
61-75
4
11
76-90
Eyüpspor25 games · scored 19 · conceded 36
3
7
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
5
61-75
6
12
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
8
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
5
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
