Kasimpasa vs Fenerbahce – 21 Sep 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 6 Sun, Sep 21 · 18:00 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, İstanbul

Kasimpasa 13th · 4 pts · 5 played LLLWD

1–1Full time

Fenerbahce 3rd · 11 pts · 5 played DWWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce were slight favourites.

Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 22). Kasimpasa had 4 days of rest, Fenerbahce 4 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days4 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2

Kasimpasa19%

Draw23%

Fenerbahce57%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.88

Kasimpasa20%

Draw24%

Fenerbahce56%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.81

Kasimpasa19%

Draw23%

Fenerbahce57%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.88

Kasimpasa14%

Draw21%

Fenerbahce65%

Expected goals 0.89 – 2.10

Kasimpasa19%

Draw24%

Fenerbahce56%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.81

Over 2.5 55% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir

Cards per match 2.8
Penalties per match 0.50
Matches 4

Team strength

Kasimpasa

Fenerbahce

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

23 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

21 AttackIn forecast 75

32 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kasimpasa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Kasimpasa

Fenerbahce

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 2.25

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.48

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.45

60% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.00 ShotsContext 18.60

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

20% On target shareContext 28%

5.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.20

46% Box shareContext 61%

7% ConversionContext 10%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.40

11.40 Shots allowedContext 6.40

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 1.80

3.00 BlocksContext 3.33

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.67

72% Save rateContext 83%

47% PossessionIn forecast 63%

338 PassesContext 499

265 Accurate passesContext 431

79% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.78 Team ratingContext 7.06

17.60 FoulsContext 11.80

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 15.40

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 2.20

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.45

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.50

80% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.30 ShotsContext 15.30

4.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.22

28% On target shareContext 31%

7.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

54% Box shareContext 53%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.56

10.60 Shots allowedContext 8.90

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.70

2.44 BlocksContext 4.00

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43

62% Save rateContext 74%

52% PossessionIn forecast 58%

379 PassesContext 461

308 Accurate passesContext 392

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.93 Team ratingContext 7.09

16.10 FoulsContext 13.80

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kasimpasa

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,238 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fenerbahce

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Kasimpasa	Fenerbahce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Sep	4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,238 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kasimpasa Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1A. Gianniotis(G)

21G. Frimpong 4Adem Arous 20N. Opoku 2C. Winck Neto

16A. Baldursson

11A. Kol 8Cafú 10H. Hajradinović 12A. Ben Ouanes

77P. Guèye

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31Ederson(G)

24J. Oosterwolde 4Ç. Söyüncü 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

5İ. Yüksek 7Fred

9M. Aktürkoğlu 21Marco Asensio 17İ. Kahveci

94Talisca

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Kasimpasa Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fenerbahce Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Kasimpasa-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Fenerbahce+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Kasimpasa · Home 0.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Fenerbahce · Away 2.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Kasimpasa	Fenerbahce
Trabzonspor	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Kasimpasa wins0 draws4 Fenerbahce wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.25 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

16 Feb 2025Fenerbahce3–1Kasimpasa
15 Sep 2024Kasimpasa0–2Fenerbahce
24 Feb 2024Fenerbahce2–1Kasimpasa
8 Oct 2023Kasimpasa0–2Fenerbahce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Kasimpasa	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.80
Conceded per game	1.20	0.80
Match goals	2.00	2.60	2.87
Over 1.5	40%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	55%
Over 3.5	20%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	54%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	5	5

	Kasimpasa	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.80
Conceded per game	1.20	0.80
Match goals	2.00	2.60	2.87
Over 1.5	40%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	55%
Over 3.5	20%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	54%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Kasimpasa	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.00
Corners conceded	4.40	3.00
Match total	8.40	7.00	9.36
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	40% 2/5	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/5	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.20
Opponent cards	2.60	3.40
Match total	5.60	5.60	4.80
Over 3.5	100% 5/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5

	Kasimpasa	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	4.14
Corners conceded	3.50	3.71
Match total	8.60	7.85	9.36
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	14% 1/7
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	14% 1/7
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	14% 1/7
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.40
Opponent cards	2.50	2.80
Match total	5.40	5.20	4.80
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.75league 4.60

Red cards0.00league 0.25

Cards 5+0%league 50%

Fouls20.3league 26.5

Penalties0.50league 0.27

Home wins75%league 38%

Kasimpasa

No previous matches with this referee.

Fenerbahce2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W31 May 25H · Konyaspor2–14
D20 Apr 25H · Kayserispor3–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.