Kasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kasimpasa. Kasimpasa had 8 days of rest, Galatasaray 8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Kasimpasa15%
Draw20%
Galatasaray65%
Kasimpasa14%
Draw21%
Galatasaray64%
Kasimpasa15%
Draw20%
Galatasaray64%
Kasimpasa11%
Draw17%
Galatasaray73%
Kasimpasa16%
Draw20%
Galatasaray64%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 19
Team strength
Kasimpasa
Galatasaray
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
21
AttackIn forecast
57
32
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KasimpasaGalatasaray
0.97
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.95
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
67%
Scored inContext
91%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
9.24
ShotsContext
15.82
2.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.45
28%
On target shareContext
35%
5.44
Shots in the boxContext
11.34
57%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.42
11.33
Shots allowedContext
9.88
4.06
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.53
3.17
BlocksContext
2.69
2.97
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
68%
Save rateContext
77%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
330
PassesContext
490
256
Accurate passesContext
427
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.71
Team ratingContext
7.03
15.30
FoulsContext
12.27
13.09
Fouls sufferedContext
10.58
2.55
Yellow cardsContext
1.94
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.20
ShotsContext
13.90
2.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
32%
On target shareContext
32%
4.30
Shots in the boxContext
10.11
53%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
1.50
OffsidesContext
4.33
10.40
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.22
BlocksContext
2.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
63%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
328
PassesContext
431
250
Accurate passesContext
358
76%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.89
15.20
FoulsContext
11.80
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Galatasaray
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 May | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 704 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 90 | 89.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
25A. Yanar(G)
22K. Çörekçi
20N. Opoku
50Rodrigo Becão
4Adem Arous
16A. Baldursson
34F. Diabaté
26K. Demirbay
8Cafú
71İ. Kahveci
19A. Benedyczak
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
19G. Güvenç(G)
17E. Elmalı
91A. Ünyay
90W. Singo
93S. Boey
74Renato Nhaga
23K. Ayhan
77N. Lang
20İ. Gündoğan
10L. Sané
9M. Icardi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.12 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Galatasaray
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kasimpasa-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Galatasaray+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
1.13points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-6
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.19
Galatasaray · Away
2.13points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 11-1-4
- Scored
- 1.94
- Conceded
- 0.94
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kasimpasa | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–4 AL 1–3 H | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Goztepe | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Kayserispor | W 2–0 HL 2–3 A | W 4–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Besiktas | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | W 5–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Rizespor | L 0–3 HW 2–1 A | W 3–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A | W 3–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 1–2 AL 2–3 H | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Samsunspor | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | L 1–4 AW 3–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 0–0 HL 1–2 A | W 4–2 HW 4–1 A |
| Points | 32 of 96 · 1.00 per game | 74 of 96 · 2.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Kasimpasa wins2 draws3 Galatasaray wins
Goals per game2.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets0% · 20%
- 21 Dec 2025Galatasaray3–0Kasimpasa
- 2 Mar 2025Kasimpasa3–3Galatasaray
- 28 Sep 2024Galatasaray3–3Kasimpasa
- 17 Mar 2024Kasimpasa3–4Galatasaray
- 3 Nov 2023Galatasaray2–1Kasimpasa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.97 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.45 | 3.21 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 70% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 58% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 9% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Kasimpasa | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.40 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 5.42 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.39 | 3.35 | |
| Match total | 8.49 | 8.77 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 14/31 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 10/31 | 45% 14/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 16% 5/31 | 29% 9/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.79 | 2.06 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.39 | 2.36 | |
| Match total | 5.18 | 4.42 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 25/33 | 52% 17/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 16/33 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Kasimpasa | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 6.90 | 8.60 | 9.35 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 6.10 | 4.00 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.16league 4.41
Red cards0.11league 0.22
Cards 5+42%league 44%
Fouls26.8league 26.0
Penalties0.42league 0.30
Home wins42%league 42%
Kasimpasa3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L28 Feb 26H · Rizespor0–30
- D26 Oct 25H · Besiktas1–11
- W10 May 25A · Eyüpspor3–03
Galatasaray1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W1 Feb 26H · Kayserispor4–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa33 games · scored 32 · conceded 49
4
8
0-15
3
10
16-30
7
8
31-45
5
5
46-60
8
3
61-75
5
15
76-90
Galatasaray33 games · scored 77 · conceded 29
12
3
0-15
11
3
16-30
9
2
31-45
12
5
46-60
16
10
61-75
17
6
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
4
2
0-15
5
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 19 · conceded 15
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
6
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
