Kasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Kasimpasa were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Kasimpasa had 11.9 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 6.9 and had to travel 850 km.
Away travel850 kmRest days11.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Kasimpasa47%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep27%
Kasimpasa46%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep27%
Kasimpasa47%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep27%
Kasimpasa39%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep34%
Kasimpasa46%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep27%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 6
Team strength
Kasimpasa
Gazişehir Gaziantep
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
21
AttackIn forecast
15
32
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KasimpasaGazişehir Gaziantep
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
0.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.53
50%
Scored inContext
33%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.00
ShotsContext
15.67
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.33
11%
On target shareContext
15%
4.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
44%
Box shareContext
53%
6%
ConversionContext
4%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.50
13.00
Shots allowedContext
11.67
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.00
BlocksContext
2.33
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
67%
Save rateContext
50%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
355
PassesContext
403
282
Accurate passesContext
346
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.60
21.00
FoulsContext
12.33
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
16.67
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
80%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.90
ShotsContext
12.90
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
32%
On target shareContext
30%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
57%
Box shareContext
54%
10%
ConversionContext
6%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.75
9.60
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
2.00
BlocksContext
3.56
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
58%
Save rateContext
62%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
416
PassesContext
379
342
Accurate passesContext
315
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.77
15.00
FoulsContext
13.80
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
Rest11.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel850 km883 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 11.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Aug | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 850 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 883 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
21G. Frimpong
41A. Szalai
20N. Opoku
14J. Espinoza
16A. Baldursson
12A. Ben Ouanes
5Atakan Mujde
10H. Hajradinović
7M. Fall
77P. Guèye
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
71M. Bozan(G)
6M. Kabasakal
18D. Sorescu
14L. Abena
4A. Kızıldağ
17S. Güler
10K. Kozłowski
77K. Rodrigues
61O. Özçiçek
11C. Lungoyi
44A. Maxim
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kasimpasa+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Kasimpasa wins2 draws1 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 24 May 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep2–2Kasimpasa
- 5 Jan 2025Kasimpasa2–2Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 21 Apr 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep2–0Kasimpasa
- 3 Dec 2023Kasimpasa4–2Gazişehir Gaziantep
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 67% | |
| Games | 2 | 3 |
| Kasimpasa | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 67% | |
| Games | 2 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.67 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 7.00 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Kasimpasa | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 5.89 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.78 | 9.45 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 5.70 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 3.95
Red cards0.17league 0.32
Cards 5+17%league 36%
Fouls21.3league 25.6
Penalties0.00league 0.36
Home wins67%league 45%
KasimpasaNo previous matches with this referee.
Gazişehir GaziantepNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa2 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep3 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
