Kasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 21). Kasimpasa had 6.1 days of rest, Goztepe 7.1 and had to travel 328 km.
Away travel328 kmRest days6.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Kasimpasa38%
Draw28%
Goztepe34%
Kasimpasa38%
Draw27%
Goztepe35%
Kasimpasa38%
Draw28%
Goztepe34%
Kasimpasa31%
Draw28%
Goztepe41%
Kasimpasa38%
Draw27%
Goztepe35%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeÖmer Tolga Güldibi
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Kasimpasa
Goztepe
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
21
AttackIn forecast
39
32
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KasimpasaGoztepe
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.18
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.55
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
73%
Scored inContext
73%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
64%
11.18
ShotsContext
13.00
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.45
23%
On target shareContext
34%
6.64
Shots in the boxContext
7.91
58%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.91
11.64
Shots allowedContext
11.64
4.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.27
3.50
BlocksContext
3.50
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
74%
Save rateContext
86%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
328
PassesContext
247
258
Accurate passesContext
173
79%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.83
15.27
FoulsContext
16.09
11.27
Fouls sufferedContext
9.73
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
11.30
ShotsContext
12.60
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
23%
On target shareContext
36%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
59%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.30
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.67
BlocksContext
3.22
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
76%
Save rateContext
86%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
321
PassesContext
244
251
Accurate passesContext
170
78%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.81
14.70
FoulsContext
16.30
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,225 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Goztepe
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel328 km656 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 328 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,225 km | 656 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.9 | 14.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
21G. Frimpong
41A. Szalai
20N. Opoku
4Adem Arous
2C. Winck Neto
8Cafú
16A. Baldursson
12A. Ben Ouanes
77P. Guèye
17K. Kanatsızkuş
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
4T. Altıkardeş
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
2A. Kurtulan
11Efkan Bekiroğlu
9Juan
39Janderson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kasimpasa+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Goztepe+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
0.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.40
Goztepe · Away
1.33points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 0.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Kasimpasa | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Rizespor | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 9 of 21 · 1.29 per game | 13 of 21 · 1.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Kasimpasa wins0 draws2 Goztepe wins
Goals per game0.50 – 3.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 30 May 2025Kasimpasa1–2Goztepe
- 13 Jan 2025Goztepe5–0Kasimpasa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 0.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.36 | 1.73 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 55% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 27% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 9% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 27% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 64% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 27% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Kasimpasa | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 1.60 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 20% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.73 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.46 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.36 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 4.45 | 4.54 | 4.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 8/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 4/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Kasimpasa | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.60 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.70 | 4.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ömer Tolga Güldibi 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 4.62
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+50%league 52%
Fouls29.0league 26.1
Penalties0.00league 0.27
Home wins100%league 37%
KasimpasaNo previous matches with this referee.
GoztepeNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa11 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Goztepe11 games · scored 13 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
5
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 10 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
