Kasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Kasimpasa
14th · 13 pts · 13 played
LDLLW
1–3Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
13th · 13 pts · 13 played
DWWLL
Our take
Kasimpasa were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Istanbul Basaksehir. Kasimpasa had 6.1 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 5 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days6.1 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 1
Kasimpasa41%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir32%
Kasimpasa40%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir32%
Kasimpasa40%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir33%
Kasimpasa34%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir39%
Kasimpasa41%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir32%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan
- Cards per match 6.1
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 17
Team strength
KasimpasaIstanbul Basaksehir
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
21
AttackIn forecast
32
32
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIstanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KasimpasaIstanbul Basaksehir
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.23
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.15
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
69%
Scored inContext
77%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
11.00
ShotsContext
11.85
2.92
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.54
25%
On target shareContext
30%
6.31
Shots in the boxContext
8.08
57%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.70
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.08
Shots allowedContext
12.92
4.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.77
3.33
BlocksContext
3.58
3.45
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.77
73%
Save rateContext
79%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
329
PassesContext
429
258
Accurate passesContext
365
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.87
14.62
FoulsContext
11.92
12.08
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.31
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.70
ShotsContext
12.00
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
26%
On target shareContext
28%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
59%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.11
12.40
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.67
BlocksContext
3.33
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
78%
Save rateContext
81%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
313
PassesContext
439
241
Accurate passesContext
374
77%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.40
FoulsContext
11.60
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Istanbul Basaksehir |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 962 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
21G. Frimpong
4Adem Arous
41A. Szalai
20N. Opoku
2C. Winck Neto
12A. Ben Ouanes
8Cafú
16A. Baldursson
7M. Fall
77P. Guèye
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
6O. Bulut
20U. Güneş
8O. Kemen
25A. Harit
14E. Shomurodov
11A. Fayzullaev
9D. Selke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kasimpasa+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Istanbul Basaksehir-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
0.50points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-3
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.50
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Kasimpasa | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Kayserispor | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Eyüpspor | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Rizespor | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–1 H | L 3–4 H |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–2 A | W 4–0 A |
| Points | 11 of 30 · 1.10 per game | 10 of 30 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Kasimpasa wins1 draws3 Istanbul Basaksehir wins
Goals per game1.25 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 18 May 2025Kasimpasa2–3Istanbul Basaksehir
- 23 Dec 2024Istanbul Basaksehir2–2Kasimpasa
- 5 May 2024Istanbul Basaksehir4–1Kasimpasa
- 9 Jan 2024Kasimpasa0–3Istanbul Basaksehir
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.23 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.15 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 46% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 54% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 23% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Kasimpasa | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.60 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.64 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.27 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.91 | 10.38 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 7/11 | 85% 11/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.15 | 2.46 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 2.85 | |
| Match total | 4.23 | 5.31 | 4.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 9/13 | 85% 11/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 4/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Kasimpasa | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.88 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 10.76 | 9.90 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 5.10 | 4.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.94league 4.46
Red cards0.18league 0.27
Cards 5+71%league 48%
Fouls24.7league 26.1
Penalties0.47league 0.28
Home wins41%league 37%
Kasimpasa1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L18 May 25H · Istanbul Basaksehir2–32
Istanbul Basaksehir2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L18 Oct 25H · Galatasaray1–23
- W18 May 25A · Kasimpasa3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa13 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir13 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
