Kasimpasa vs Kayserispor – 4 Apr 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 28 Sat, Apr 4 · 12:30 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, İstanbul

Kasimpasa 15th · 24 pts · 27 played DLDWL

2–0Full time

Kayserispor 16th · 23 pts · 27 played WDLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Kasimpasa were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Kayserispor. Kasimpasa had 15.8 days of rest, Kayserispor 15.9 and had to travel 613 km.

Away travel613 kmRest days15.8 · 15.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Kasimpasa42%

Draw28%

Kayserispor30%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.13

Kasimpasa46%

Draw26%

Kayserispor27%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.14

Kasimpasa42%

Draw28%

Kayserispor30%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.11

Kasimpasa35%

Draw28%

Kayserispor36%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.26

Kasimpasa42%

Draw28%

Kayserispor30%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.15

Over 2.5 46% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.12
Matches 17

Team strength

Kasimpasa

Kayserispor

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 14

23 Current StrengthIn forecast 13

21 AttackIn forecast 16

32 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kasimpasa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Kayserispor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Kasimpasa

Kayserispor

0.85 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.78

1.41 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.78

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

63% Scored inContext 63%

22% Clean sheetsContext 22%

9.44 ShotsContext 11.22

2.79 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.63

26% On target shareContext 32%

5.81 Shots in the boxContext 6.33

59% Box shareContext 56%

9% ConversionContext 7%

1.95 OffsidesContext 2.39

11.70 Shots allowedContext 14.07

3.96 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.22

3.48 BlocksContext 3.82

2.92 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.08

69% Save rateContext 73%

45% PossessionIn forecast 46%

333 PassesContext 347

259 Accurate passesContext 277

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.71

15.59 FoulsContext 12.59

12.96 Fouls sufferedContext 12.56

2.48 Yellow cardsContext 2.41

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.00 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.64

70% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

8.30 ShotsContext 11.40

2.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

29% On target shareContext 27%

5.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.60

62% Box shareContext 57%

11% ConversionContext 4%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.90

11.10 Shots allowedContext 15.20

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

3.89 BlocksContext 4.33

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

65% Save rateContext 75%

46% PossessionIn forecast 44%

357 PassesContext 333

278 Accurate passesContext 262

78% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.76

17.50 FoulsContext 12.70

14.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

3.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kasimpasa

Rest15.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Kayserispor

Rest15.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel613 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Kasimpasa	Kayserispor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	15.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Mar	15.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	613 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 3	0 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8.1	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kasimpasa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Gianniotis(G)

22K. Çörekçi 4Adem Arous 50Rodrigo Becão 2C. Winck Neto

16A. Baldursson 8Cafú

12A. Ben Ouanes 34F. Diabaté 71İ. Kahveci

19A. Benedyczak

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Kayserispor Confirmed XI

4-4-2

25B. Bayazıt(G)

28R. Civelek 4S. Denswil 6S. Güler 2J. Katongo

7Miguel Cardoso 8L. Bénes 15Y. Aït Bennasser 18D. Makarov

9G. Onugkha 63F. Chalov

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Kasimpasa Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Kayserispor Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Kasimpasa-0.3 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Kayserispor+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Kasimpasa · Home 0.85points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 2-5-6
Scored: 0.77
Conceded: 1.38

Kayserispor · Away 0.79points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 1-8-5
Scored: 0.79
Conceded: 1.57

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Kasimpasa	Kayserispor
Besiktas	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	L 0–1 AL 0–4 H
Eyüpspor	W 1–0 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 A
Konyaspor	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Rizespor	L 0–3 HW 2–1 A	W 1–0 A
Fenerbahce	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H	L 2–4 A
Fatih Karagümrük	W 3–2 HW 1–0 A	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep	L 1–2 AL 2–3 H	L 0–3 H
Samsunspor	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A	L 1–2 AL 1–3 H
Trabzonspor	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H	L 1–3 HL 0–4 A
Antalyaspor	D 0–0 HL 1–2 A	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Galatasaray	L 0–3 A	L 0–4 AL 0–4 H
Genclerbirligi	D 0–0 H	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Kocaelispor	D 0–0 A	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Istanbul Basaksehir	L 1–3 H	L 0–3 HD 1–1 A
Alanyaspor	W 2–1 A	D 0–0 H
Goztepe	L 0–2 H	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Points	24 of 78 · 0.92 per game	20 of 78 · 0.77 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Kasimpasa wins0 draws4 Kayserispor wins

Goals per game1.60 – 2.00 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%

2 Nov 2025Kayserispor3–2Kasimpasa
13 Apr 2025Kayserispor1–0Kasimpasa
8 Nov 2024Kasimpasa1–2Kayserispor
3 Apr 2024Kayserispor0–2Kasimpasa
11 Nov 2023Kasimpasa3–4Kayserispor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Kasimpasa	Kayserispor	Forecast
Scored per game	0.85	0.78
Conceded per game	1.41	1.78
Match goals	2.26	2.56	2.51
Over 1.5	70%	74%
Over 2.5	44%	48%	46%
Over 3.5	15%	33%
Both teams scored	56%	52%	51%
Clean sheets	22%	22%
Failed to score	37%	37%
Games	27	27

	Kasimpasa	Kayserispor	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	0.50
Conceded per game	1.40	1.50
Match goals	2.30	2.00	2.51
Over 1.5	70%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	46%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	30%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Kasimpasa	Kayserispor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.28	4.68
Corners conceded	4.40	4.96
Match total	8.68	9.64	9.42
Over 8.5	44% 11/25	72% 18/25
Over 9.5	32% 8/25	48% 12/25
Over 10.5	20% 5/25	32% 8/25
Cards
Cards	2.63	2.48
Opponent cards	2.33	1.70
Match total	4.96	4.18	4.63
Over 3.5	74% 20/27	63% 17/27
Over 4.5	44% 12/27	41% 11/27

	Kasimpasa	Kayserispor	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	5.40
Corners conceded	3.30	5.10
Match total	7.00	10.50	9.42
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	10% 1/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	3.40	2.40
Opponent cards	2.50	1.10
Match total	5.90	3.50	4.63
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 17 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.24league 4.41

Red cards0.06league 0.21

Cards 5+24%league 44%

Fouls24.4league 26.0

Penalties0.12league 0.27

Home wins53%league 39%

Kasimpasa1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L9 Feb 26A · Gazişehir Gaziantep1–22

Kayserispor1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L22 Nov 25H · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.