Kasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Kocaelispor. Kasimpasa had 9 days of rest, Kocaelispor 7.2 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days9 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Kasimpasa36%
Draw29%
Kocaelispor34%
Kasimpasa40%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor33%
Kasimpasa37%
Draw30%
Kocaelispor34%
Kasimpasa30%
Draw29%
Kocaelispor41%
Kasimpasa37%
Draw29%
Kocaelispor34%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeYasin Kol
- Cards per match 5.8
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 38
Team strength
Kasimpasa
Kocaelispor
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
21
AttackIn forecast
16
32
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KasimpasaKocaelispor
0.94
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.81
1.45
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
65%
Scored inContext
58%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
9.13
ShotsContext
10.06
2.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.17
28%
On target shareContext
30%
5.43
Shots in the boxContext
6.29
57%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
1.90
OffsidesContext
2.34
11.45
Shots allowedContext
10.84
4.03
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.43
3.17
BlocksContext
3.60
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
68%
Save rateContext
65%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
331
PassesContext
362
256
Accurate passesContext
290
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.73
15.10
FoulsContext
14.67
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.26
2.42
Yellow cardsContext
2.16
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
80%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
7.50
ShotsContext
10.00
2.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.75
36%
On target shareContext
22%
4.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
53%
Box shareContext
69%
17%
ConversionContext
7%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.56
11.70
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.10
BlocksContext
3.50
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
64%
Save rateContext
67%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
324
PassesContext
366
242
Accurate passesContext
292
75%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.70
15.10
FoulsContext
16.10
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
3.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kocaelispor
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel197 km915 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Apr | 7.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 26 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 915 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
22K. Çörekçi
4Adem Arous
20N. Opoku
2C. Winck Neto
26K. Demirbay
8Cafú
12A. Ben Ouanes
34F. Diabaté
71İ. Kahveci
19A. Benedyczak
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
83Serhat Öztaşdelen
21M. Haïdara
14Show
2A. Dijksteel
22A. Oğuz
98J. Nonge Boende
8H. Keïta
20Mahamadou Susoho
7Daniel Agyei
19S. Dursun
70C. Keles
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kasimpasa-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Kocaelispor+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
1.13points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-6
- Scored
- 0.87
- Conceded
- 1.20
Kocaelispor · Away
0.87points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-8
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.53
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kasimpasa | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–4 AL 1–3 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–5 AW 2–0 H |
| Goztepe | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Kayserispor | W 2–0 HL 2–3 A | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Rizespor | L 0–3 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 1–2 AL 2–3 H | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Samsunspor | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | D 0–0 HL 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 30 of 90 · 1.00 per game | 35 of 90 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Kasimpasa wins1 draws0 Kocaelispor wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 7 Dec 2025Kocaelispor0–0Kasimpasa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.94 | 0.81 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.45 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.39 | 1.94 | 2.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 58% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 29% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 39% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 42% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Kasimpasa | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.00 | 2.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.07 | 4.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.34 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 8.41 | 7.97 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 41% 12/29 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 9/29 | 28% 8/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 5/29 | 14% 4/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.65 | 2.26 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.39 | 2.26 | |
| Match total | 5.04 | 4.52 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 24/31 | 61% 19/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 15/31 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Kasimpasa | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.40 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 6.40 | 6.78 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.50 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 6.30 | 4.30 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yasin Kol 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.34league 4.45
Red cards0.45league 0.22
Cards 5+63%league 45%
Fouls26.4league 26.0
Penalties0.37league 0.28
Home wins37%league 41%
Kasimpasa3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.4.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- D23 Feb 26A · Fenerbahce1–17
- W2 Feb 25A · Adana Demirspor5–32
- W24 Sep 23H · Adana Demirspor2–14
Kocaelispor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D30 Aug 25H · Kayserispor1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa31 games · scored 29 · conceded 45
1
8
0-15
3
9
16-30
7
6
31-45
5
5
46-60
8
2
61-75
5
15
76-90
Kocaelispor31 games · scored 25 · conceded 35
1
5
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
6
31-45
2
5
46-60
6
5
61-75
7
12
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
8
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
