Kasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Kasimpasa were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Kasimpasa had 6.9 days of rest, Konyaspor 6.9 and had to travel 463 km.
Away travel463 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Kasimpasa45%
Draw27%
Konyaspor28%
Kasimpasa45%
Draw27%
Konyaspor28%
Kasimpasa45%
Draw27%
Konyaspor28%
Kasimpasa38%
Draw27%
Konyaspor35%
Kasimpasa45%
Draw27%
Konyaspor28%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
RefereeAlper Akarsu
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 19
Team strength
Kasimpasa
Konyaspor
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
21
AttackIn forecast
13
32
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKonyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KasimpasaKonyaspor
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.74
71%
Scored inContext
100%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
12.00
ShotsContext
13.33
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
19%
On target shareContext
36%
6.43
Shots in the boxContext
8.17
51%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.17
11.00
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.57
BlocksContext
3.20
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
68%
Save rateContext
74%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
321
PassesContext
369
247
Accurate passesContext
297
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.98
16.57
FoulsContext
12.00
12.29
Fouls sufferedContext
12.17
2.71
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.50
ShotsContext
12.80
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
24%
On target shareContext
38%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
53%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
1.70
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.10
Shots allowedContext
13.40
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.22
BlocksContext
3.25
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
60%
Save rateContext
71%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
356
PassesContext
363
283
Accurate passesContext
296
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.96
15.00
FoulsContext
12.20
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,940 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Konyaspor
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel463 km926 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Konyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 463 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,940 km | 926 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.2 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
21G. Frimpong
41A. Szalai
20N. Opoku
2C. Winck Neto
12A. Ben Ouanes
16A. Baldursson
6Cem Üstündag
34F. Diabaté
77P. Guèye
17K. Kanatsızkuş
Konyaspor
Confirmed XI
1D. Ertaş(G)
4A. Demirbağ
16M. Jevtović
5U. Yazğılı
12G. Sityá
8Pedrinho
77M. İbrahimoğlu
23Y. Andzouana
40J. Muleka
18A. Ndao
22M. Nayir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Konyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kasimpasa+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Konyaspor-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Konyaspor · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Kasimpasa | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 2–3 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Kasimpasa wins1 draws3 Konyaspor wins
Goals per game1.25 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 19 Jan 2025Konyaspor3–3Kasimpasa
- 10 Aug 2024Kasimpasa2–3Konyaspor
- 13 Apr 2024Kasimpasa0–2Konyaspor
- 25 Nov 2023Konyaspor2–0Kasimpasa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 3.33 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 83% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 83% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 6 |
| Kasimpasa | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 3.33 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 83% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 83% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.17 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.83 | |
| Match total | 9.17 | 10.66 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 5.14 | 4.16 | 4.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Kasimpasa | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 9.80 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alper Akarsu 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.79league 4.65
Red cards0.16league 0.30
Cards 5+58%league 53%
Fouls23.2league 26.7
Penalties0.42league 0.27
Home wins47%league 38%
Kasimpasa2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L9 Aug 25A · Antalyaspor1–23
- D23 Dec 24A · Istanbul Basaksehir2–24
Konyaspor2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D14 Dec 24A · Rizespor1–12
- L28 Jan 24H · Istanbul Basaksehir2–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa7 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
76-90
Konyaspor6 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Konyaspor10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
