Kasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Kasimpasa. Kasimpasa had 4.7 days of rest, Rizespor 7.7 and had to travel 970 km.
Away travel970 kmRest days4.7 · 7.7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Kasimpasa40%
Draw28%
Rizespor32%
Kasimpasa41%
Draw27%
Rizespor32%
Kasimpasa41%
Draw28%
Rizespor31%
Kasimpasa33%
Draw28%
Rizespor39%
Kasimpasa40%
Draw28%
Rizespor32%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 14
Team strength
Kasimpasa
Rizespor
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
21
AttackIn forecast
22
32
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KasimpasaRizespor
0.87
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.39
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.52
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
61%
Scored inContext
74%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
9.70
ShotsContext
11.74
2.95
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.35
27%
On target shareContext
29%
5.95
Shots in the boxContext
6.43
59%
Box shareContext
53%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.32
11.74
Shots allowedContext
13.91
3.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.57
BlocksContext
4.09
2.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.45
70%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
331
PassesContext
376
259
Accurate passesContext
307
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.76
15.35
FoulsContext
13.22
12.65
Fouls sufferedContext
12.22
2.39
Yellow cardsContext
2.39
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
50%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.00
ShotsContext
12.30
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
30%
On target shareContext
31%
5.44
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
61%
Box shareContext
51%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.38
11.30
Shots allowedContext
13.10
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.89
BlocksContext
3.70
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
66%
Save rateContext
64%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
334
PassesContext
365
260
Accurate passesContext
298
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.77
16.30
FoulsContext
11.90
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kasimpasa
Rest4.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rizespor
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel970 km1,320 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kasimpasa |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 23 Feb | 7.7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 20 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 970 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,320 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
21G. Frimpong
4Adem Arous
50Rodrigo Becão
2C. Winck Neto
71İ. Kahveci
16A. Baldursson
19A. Benedyczak
34F. Diabaté
18J. Allevinah
23C. Tosun
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
27M. Sagnan
3S. Akaydin
54M. Pala
20Q. Laçi
14T. Antalyalı
10I. Olawoyin
7V. Mihăilă
11H. Dervişoğlu
17A. Awokoya-Mebude
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kasimpasa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rizespor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kasimpasa-1.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Rizespor+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Kasimpasa · Home
0.73points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-5
- Scored
- 0.82
- Conceded
- 1.36
Rizespor · Away
0.91points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-7-3
- Scored
- 1.45
- Conceded
- 1.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kasimpasa | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | L 2–5 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 3–2 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 1–2 AL 2–3 H | D 2–2 A |
| Samsunspor | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 0–0 HL 1–2 A | W 5–2 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 A | L 0–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Genclerbirligi | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 1–3 H | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 H | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Kayserispor | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Besiktas | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | L 0–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 17 of 66 · 0.77 per game | 24 of 66 · 1.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Kasimpasa wins2 draws0 Rizespor wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.00
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 28 Sep 2025Rizespor1–2Kasimpasa
- 9 Feb 2025Kasimpasa3–2Rizespor
- 31 Aug 2024Rizespor0–1Kasimpasa
- 18 May 2024Rizespor0–0Kasimpasa
- 25 Dec 2023Kasimpasa2–2Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kasimpasa | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.87 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.39 | 1.52 | |
| Match goals | 2.26 | 2.74 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 52% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 26% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Kasimpasa | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.60 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kasimpasa | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.62 | 3.62 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.62 | 4.81 | |
| Match total | 9.24 | 8.43 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 11/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 8/21 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 5/21 | 24% 5/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.57 | 2.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 4.79 | 4.44 | 4.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 74% 17/23 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 9/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Kasimpasa | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.60 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.40 | 4.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.57league 4.46
Red cards0.07league 0.22
Cards 5+50%league 46%
Fouls26.5league 26.0
Penalties0.50league 0.26
Home wins43%league 38%
Kasimpasa2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D26 Oct 25H · Besiktas1–11
- W10 May 25A · Eyüpspor3–03
RizesporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kasimpasa23 games · scored 20 · conceded 32
6
0-15
3
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
7
2
61-75
4
10
76-90
Rizespor23 games · scored 28 · conceded 35
5
4
0-15
2
5
16-30
5
4
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
9
61-75
8
9
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
8
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
6
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
