Kasimpasa vs Samsunspor – 30 Jan 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 20 Fri, Jan 30 · 17:00 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, İstanbul

Kasimpasa 15th · 16 pts · 19 played DDLDL

0–1Full time

Samsunspor 7th · 27 pts · 19 played LLLDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 18). Kasimpasa had 7 days of rest, Samsunspor 6.1 and had to travel 619 km.

Away travel619 kmRest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Kasimpasa35%

Draw27%

Samsunspor38%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.37

Kasimpasa35%

Draw27%

Samsunspor38%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.37

Kasimpasa34%

Draw27%

Samsunspor38%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.38

Kasimpasa28%

Draw27%

Samsunspor45%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.53

Kasimpasa36%

Draw27%

Samsunspor37%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.35

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeCagdas Altay

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.10
Matches 10

Team strength

Kasimpasa

Samsunspor

18 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

23 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

21 AttackIn forecast 15

32 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kasimpasa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Samsunspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Kasimpasa

Samsunspor

0.79 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.21

1.37 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11

0.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.86

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

58% Scored inContext 74%

26% Clean sheetsContext 26%

9.95 ShotsContext 12.79

3.06 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.11

26% On target shareContext 31%

6.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.68

60% Box shareContext 60%

8% ConversionContext 10%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.06

11.89 Shots allowedContext 11.16

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.32

3.17 BlocksContext 3.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.69

71% Save rateContext 73%

45% PossessionIn forecast 51%

327 PassesContext 401

255 Accurate passesContext 329

78% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.78

14.53 FoulsContext 14.21

12.53 Fouls sufferedContext 10.58

2.05 Yellow cardsContext 2.05

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.65 xGVia Att/Def 0.83

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.99

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

50% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

8.60 ShotsContext 12.20

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56

33% On target shareContext 26%

5.89 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

62% Box shareContext 53%

8% ConversionContext 7%

2.57 OffsidesContext 2.20

12.60 Shots allowedContext 11.00

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

3.10 BlocksContext 3.25

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

69% Save rateContext 53%

45% PossessionIn forecast 53%

324 PassesContext 438

251 Accurate passesContext 361

78% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.66

13.70 FoulsContext 13.40

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kasimpasa

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Samsunspor

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel619 km661 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Kasimpasa	Samsunspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 23 Jan	6.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	619 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,807 km	661 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	10	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kasimpasa Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1A. Gianniotis(G)

21G. Frimpong 20N. Opoku 50Rodrigo Becão 22K. Çörekçi

16A. Baldursson

11A. Kol 71İ. Kahveci 12A. Ben Ouanes 34F. Diabaté

77P. Guèye

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Samsunspor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Kocuk(G)

17L. Tómasson 4R. van Drongelen 37Ľ. Šatka 18Z. Yavru

10J. Ntcham 29A. Makoumbou

47Jaures Assoumou 21C. Holse 7E. Tavşan

19P. Ndiaye

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Kasimpasa Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Samsunspor Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Kasimpasa+0.6 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Samsunspor-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Kasimpasa · Home 0.56points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 0-5-4
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.33

Samsunspor · Away 1.44points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-2
Scored: 1.56
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Kasimpasa	Samsunspor
Trabzonspor	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Antalyaspor	D 0–0 HL 1–2 A	L 1–2 H
Galatasaray	L 0–3 A	L 2–3 A
Genclerbirligi	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Kocaelispor	D 0–0 A	D 0–0 HW 1–0 A
Istanbul Basaksehir	L 1–3 H	L 0–2 H
Alanyaspor	W 2–1 A	D 1–1 H
Goztepe	L 0–2 H	L 0–2 A
Kayserispor	L 2–3 A	W 3–1 A
Besiktas	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Eyüpspor	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 H
Konyaspor	D 1–1 H	W 3–1 A
Rizespor	W 2–1 A	D 1–1 H
Fenerbahce	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 H
Fatih Karagümrük	W 1–0 A	W 3–2 H
Gazişehir Gaziantep	L 2–3 H	D 2–2 A
Points	15 of 54 · 0.83 per game	26 of 54 · 1.44 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Kasimpasa wins1 draws2 Samsunspor wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.60 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets60% · 20%

17 Sep 2025Samsunspor0–0Kasimpasa
29 Mar 2025Samsunspor0–2Kasimpasa
26 Oct 2024Kasimpasa1–4Samsunspor
27 Apr 2024Kasimpasa1–0Samsunspor
9 Dec 2023Samsunspor4–2Kasimpasa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Kasimpasa	Samsunspor	Forecast
Scored per game	0.79	1.21
Conceded per game	1.37	1.11
Match goals	2.16	2.32	2.68
Over 1.5	68%	74%
Over 2.5	42%	37%	50%
Over 3.5	16%	26%
Both teams scored	53%	63%	55%
Clean sheets	26%	26%
Failed to score	42%	26%
Games	19	19

	Kasimpasa	Samsunspor	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.00
Conceded per game	1.50	1.20
Match goals	2.20	2.20	2.68
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	20%	50%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	50%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Kasimpasa	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.88	5.33
Corners conceded	4.94	4.17
Match total	9.82	9.50	9.43
Over 8.5	59% 10/17	61% 11/18
Over 9.5	47% 8/17	44% 8/18
Over 10.5	29% 5/17	39% 7/18
Cards
Cards	2.21	2.16
Opponent cards	2.16	1.74
Match total	4.37	3.90	4.64
Over 3.5	68% 13/19	53% 10/19
Over 4.5	32% 6/19	37% 7/19

	Kasimpasa	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.78	4.80
Corners conceded	4.78	3.10
Match total	9.56	7.90	9.43
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.70
Opponent cards	2.30	1.30
Match total	4.10	3.00	4.64
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Cagdas Altay Türkiye · 10 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.30league 4.39

Red cards0.10league 0.24

Cards 5+10%league 45%

Fouls22.8league 25.7

Penalties0.10league 0.25

Home wins40%league 36%

Kasimpasa1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W28 Sep 25A · Rizespor2–12

Samsunspor1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W21 Sep 25H · Fatih Karagümrük3–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.