Kasimpasa vs Trabzonspor – 15 Aug 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 15 · 17:00 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, İstanbul

Kasimpasa

1–1Full time

Trabzonspor

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Trabzonspor were slight favourites.

Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kasimpasa. Kasimpasa had 90 days of rest, Trabzonspor 90 and had to travel 904 km.

Away travel904 kmRest days90 · 90Matches / 14d0 · 0

Kasimpasa29%

Draw26%

Trabzonspor45%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.49

Kasimpasa28%

Draw25%

Trabzonspor47%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.57

Kasimpasa29%

Draw26%

Trabzonspor45%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.49

Kasimpasa23%

Draw24%

Trabzonspor53%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.67

Kasimpasa30%

Draw26%

Trabzonspor45%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.48

Over 2.5 49% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeGurcan Hasova

Cards per match 5.9
Penalties per match 0.57
Matches 7

Team strength

Kasimpasa

Trabzonspor

18 L90 StrengthIn forecast 43

23 Current StrengthIn forecast 46

21 AttackIn forecast 54

32 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kasimpasa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Trabzonspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Kasimpasa

Trabzonspor

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

0.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

90% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

7.50 ShotsContext 13.10

2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

35% On target shareContext 28%

4.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

55% Box shareContext 68%

17% ConversionContext 10%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.50

10.20 Shots allowedContext 13.40

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

1.89 BlocksContext 3.40

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

68% Save rateContext 73%

42% PossessionIn forecast 55%

316 PassesContext 442

240 Accurate passesContext 383

76% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.95

14.50 FoulsContext 11.10

13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.30 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kasimpasa

Rest90 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Trabzonspor

Rest90 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel904 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Kasimpasa	Trabzonspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	90Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 May	90Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	904 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kasimpasa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Gianniotis(G)

5J. Jessen 27M. Ilie 4Adem Arous 2C. Winck Neto

51Elson Mendes 16A. Baldursson

50G. Yalçın 34F. Diabaté 12A. Ben Ouanes

9A. Benedyczak

Trabzonspor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

24A. Onana(G)

19M. Eskihellaç 15S. Savić 27Chibuike Nwaiwu 20Wagner Pina

17R. Malinovskyi 8B. Bouchouari

77M. Mimaroğlu 58D. Şimşir 70N. Saviolo

30E. Onuachu

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Kasimpasa Absences are shown before kick-off

Trabzonspor Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Kasimpasa+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Trabzonspor+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Kasimpasa · Home No home games yet this season.

Trabzonspor · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Kasimpasa wins2 draws3 Trabzonspor wins

Goals per game1.33 – 2.17 Over 2.567% Both scored83% Clean sheets0% · 17%

23 Jan 2026Trabzonspor2–1Kasimpasa
18 Aug 2025Kasimpasa0–1Trabzonspor
5 May 2025Kasimpasa1–1Trabzonspor
6 Dec 2024Trabzonspor2–2Kasimpasa
29 Jan 2024Trabzonspor2–3Kasimpasa
1 Sep 2023Kasimpasa1–5Trabzonspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Kasimpasa	Trabzonspor	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.63
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	49%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	53%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Kasimpasa	Trabzonspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.30
Conceded per game	1.40	1.10
Match goals	2.70	2.40	2.63
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	70%	53%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Kasimpasa	Trabzonspor	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.00
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Kasimpasa	Trabzonspor	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	5.10
Corners conceded	4.10	5.00
Match total	7.10	10.10	9.00
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	3.30	1.40
Opponent cards	2.70	2.60
Match total	6.00	4.00	2.00
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gurcan Hasova Türkiye · 7 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.71league 1.00

Red cards0.14league 1.00

Cards 5+86%league 0%

Fouls23.7league 17.0

Penalties0.57league 0.00

Home wins57%league 0%

Kasimpasa

No previous matches with this referee.

Trabzonspor

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.