UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs Play-offs Thu, Aug 27 · 18:00 S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas, Kaunas
Kauno Žalgiris 21st · 0 pts · 1 played
First leg0–3 1–0Full time
Besiktas 5th · 3 pts · 1 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,588 kmRest days7 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 4
Real contextStrength only
Kauno Žalgiris—%
Draw—%
Besiktas—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Kaunas)

No weather data yet

RefereeJ. Manzano
  • Cards per match 5.2
  • Penalties per match 0.40
  • Matches 5

Team strength

Kauno ŽalgirisBesiktas
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
6 Current StrengthIn forecast 50
7 AttackIn forecast 60
8 DefenceIn forecast 48
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kauno Žalgiris

Attack—
Defense risk—

Besiktas

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Kauno ŽalgirisBesiktas
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
— xGVia Att/Def 1.43
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12
— Goals minus xGContext -0.03
50% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 70%
— ShotsContext 17.20
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80
33% On target shareContext 34%
— Shots in the boxContext 9.60
— Box shareContext 55%
11% ConversionContext 7%
— OffsidesContext 3.00
— Shots allowedContext 12.40
— On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80
— BlocksContext 5.50
— Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80
— Save rateContext 74%
49% PossessionIn forecast 63%
— PassesContext 517
— Accurate passesContext 453
— Pass accuracyContext 88%
— Team ratingContext 6.88
— FoulsContext 11.14
— Fouls sufferedContext 11.29
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kauno Žalgiris
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,176 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Besiktas
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel1,588 km1,126 km in 14d
Schedule load55%High
Form 42 · 3 pts vs 3.9 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
  • L23 AugA · Alanyaspor0–11.7 xPts
  • W16 AugH · Eyüpspor1–02.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Kauno Žalgiris Besiktas
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 10High · 55
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoYes
Rest dayssince last match7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 20 Aug3.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 23 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,588 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,176 km1,126 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 32 / 4 / 6
Next matchdays after this one—4.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kauno Žalgiris Confirmed XI
4-1-4-1
22D. Mikelionis(G)
37N. Edokpolor 23A. Hernández 77R. Lekiatas 45J. Moutachy
8Y. Karashima
15Leonardo 20A. Kalik 17I. Fiolić 70F. Ourega
27G. Debeljuh
Besiktas Confirmed XI
4-3-3
1A. Nübel(G)
62A. Murillo 35Tiago Djaló 53E. Topçu 29I. Fakili
15Junior Olaitan 6S. Özcan 11K. Ouattara
8K. Yılmaz 28D. Vlahović 18V. Černý

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Kauno Žalgiris Absences are shown before kick-off
Besiktas Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Kauno Žalgiris · Home No home games yet this season.
Besiktas · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Kauno Žalgiris wins0 draws1 Besiktas wins
Goals per game0.00 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%
  • 20 Aug 2026Besiktas3–0Kauno Žalgiris

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Kauno ŽalgirisBesiktasForecast
Scored per game 0.003.00
Conceded per game 3.000.00
Match goals 3.003.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%100%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 0%0%
Clean sheets 0%100%
Failed to score 100%0%
Games11
Kauno ŽalgirisBesiktasForecast
Scored per game 0.331.40
Conceded per game 3.330.50
Match goals 3.671.90
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 100%30%
Over 3.5 33%10%
Both teams scored 33%20%
Clean sheets 0%70%
Failed to score 67%10%
Games310

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Kauno ŽalgirisBesiktasLeague
Corners
Corners won2.0015.00
Corners conceded15.002.00
Match total17.0017.009.57
Over 8.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 9.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 10.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Cards
Cards4.001.00
Opponent cards1.004.00
Match total5.005.004.21
Over 3.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 4.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Kauno ŽalgirisBesiktasLeague
Corners
Corners won5.676.57
Corners conceded7.005.43
Match total12.6712.009.57
Over 8.5100% 3/3100% 7/7
Over 9.567% 2/386% 6/7
Over 10.567% 2/357% 4/7
Cards
Cards2.501.50
Opponent cards2.501.80
Match total5.003.304.21
Over 3.580% 8/1050% 5/10
Over 4.550% 5/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · J. Manzano 5 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.80league 4.00
Red cards0.40league 0.21
Cards 5+80%league 43%
Fouls26.6league 22.9
Penalties0.40league 0.57
Home wins40%league 57%
Kauno Žalgiris

No previous matches with this referee.

Besiktas

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Kauno Žalgiris1 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
2 0-15
16-30
31-45
1 46-60
61-75
76-90
Besiktas1 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
2 0-15
16-30
31-45
1 46-60
61-75
76-90
Kauno Žalgiris10 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
2 4 0-15
1 4 16-30
2 31-45
1 4 46-60
61-75
3 3 76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 14 · conceded 5
4 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 46-60
2 2 61-75
2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.