Kauno Žalgiris
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Aug 11 · 18:00
S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas, Kaunas
Kauno Žalgiris
33rd · 0 pts · 1 played
L
First leg0–5
1–2Full time
Dinamo Zagreb
4th · 7 pts · 3 played
DWW
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel1,155 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Kauno Žalgiris—%
Draw—%
Dinamo Zagreb—%
Weather (Kaunas)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDavide Massa
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 116
Team strength
Kauno ŽalgirisDinamo Zagreb
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
6
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
7
AttackIn forecast
33
8
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDinamo Zagreb
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Kauno ŽalgirisDinamo Zagreb
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
60%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
—
ShotsContext
26.00
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
33%
On target shareContext
23%
—
Shots in the boxContext
15.50
—
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
12.00
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
—
BlocksContext
5.00
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
—
Save rateContext
50%
—
PossessionIn forecast
65%
—
PassesContext
599
—
Accurate passesContext
505
—
Pass accuracyContext
84%
—
Team ratingContext
7.11
—
FoulsContext
14.00
—
Fouls sufferedContext
16.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.74
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
—
ShotsContext
13.33
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
34%
On target shareContext
30%
—
Shots in the boxContext
8.38
—
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
—
OffsidesContext
2.33
—
Shots allowedContext
12.44
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
—
BlocksContext
4.00
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
63%
Save rateContext
56%
—
PossessionIn forecast
51%
—
PassesContext
493
—
Accurate passesContext
412
—
Pass accuracyContext
84%
—
Team ratingContext
6.79
—
FoulsContext
11.22
—
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kauno Žalgiris
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,310 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Dinamo Zagreb
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,155 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kauno Žalgiris |
Dinamo Zagreb |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 4 Aug | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 4 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,155 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,310 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kauno Žalgiris
Confirmed XI
22D. Mikelionis(G)
33M. Konatar
77R. Lekiatas
3A. Tolordava
45J. Moutachy
32F. Baldassarra
9L. Kreković
14V. Slivka
7A. Benchaib
24M. Burba
19Renan Oliveira
Dinamo Zagreb
Confirmed XI
44I. Filipović(G)
22M. Vinlöf
26S. McKenna
36Sergi Domínguez
25Moris Valinčić
7L. Stojković
27J. Mišić
80L. Kačavenda
99M. Oršić
9D. Beljo
21M. Lisica
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kauno Žalgiris
Absences are shown before kick-off
Dinamo Zagreb
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Kauno Žalgiris · Home
No home games yet this season.
Dinamo Zagreb · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Kauno Žalgiris wins0 draws1 Dinamo Zagreb wins
Goals per game0.00 – 5.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 4 Aug 2026Dinamo Zagreb5–0Kauno Žalgiris
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kauno Žalgiris | Dinamo Zagreb | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 5.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 3 |
| Kauno Žalgiris | Dinamo Zagreb | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 5.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 30% | |
| Games | 1 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kauno Žalgiris | Dinamo Zagreb | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 10.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 15.00 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.33 | 4.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Kauno Žalgiris | Dinamo Zagreb | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 10.22 | 10.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 3.60 | 4.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 116 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.53league 4.26
Red cards0.29league 0.23
Cards 5+52%league 42%
Fouls25.1league 24.8
Penalties0.20league 0.32
Home wins36%league 52%
Kauno ŽalgirisNo previous matches with this referee.
Dinamo ZagrebNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kauno Žalgiris5 games · scored 5 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
3
3
76-90
Dinamo Zagreb3 games · scored 9 · conceded 3
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
5
76-90
Kauno Žalgiris10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
61-75
4
4
76-90
Dinamo Zagreb10 games · scored 18 · conceded 22
2
3
0-15
5
16-30
4
6
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.