Kayserispor vs Besiktas – 24 Sep 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 1 Wed, Sep 24 · 18:00 RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayseri

Kayserispor 14th · 4 pts · 5 played DLDDD

0–4Full time

Besiktas 11th · 6 pts · 4 played WLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 19). Besiktas usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Kayserispor had 4 days of rest, Besiktas 5 and had to travel 613 km.

Away travel613 kmRest days4 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2

Kayserispor33%

Draw27%

Besiktas40%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.46

Kayserispor34%

Draw27%

Besiktas39%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.39

Kayserispor33%

Draw27%

Besiktas40%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.45

Kayserispor26%

Draw26%

Besiktas48%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.64

Kayserispor34%

Draw27%

Besiktas39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.41

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Kayseri)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.50
Matches 4

Team strength

Kayserispor

Besiktas

19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32

13 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

16 AttackIn forecast 60

17 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kayserispor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Besiktas

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Kayserispor

Besiktas

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.75

0.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.80

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.80

80% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.20 ShotsContext 16.25

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75

33% On target shareContext 29%

5.20 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

53% Box shareContext 70%

8% ConversionContext 6%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.25

13.20 Shots allowedContext 10.50

5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.25 BlocksContext 2.67

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

72% Save rateContext 56%

47% PossessionIn forecast 60%

332 PassesContext 456

259 Accurate passesContext 388

78% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.70

11.60 FoulsContext 13.75

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.75

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.25

This league season, per match · 5 and 4 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.76

1.62 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

+0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

80% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.20 ShotsContext 15.00

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

40% On target shareContext 31%

5.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.20

58% Box shareContext 70%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.57 OffsidesContext 2.50

15.90 Shots allowedContext 10.80

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.38 BlocksContext 3.83

4.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

75% Save rateContext 70%

45% PossessionIn forecast 61%

339 PassesContext 525

268 Accurate passesContext 454

79% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.77 Team ratingContext 7.00

11.50 FoulsContext 12.00

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kayserispor

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km934 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Besiktas

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel613 km656 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Kayserispor	Besiktas
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 20 Sep	5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	613 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	934 km	656 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kayserispor Confirmed XI

5-4-1

25B. Bayazıt(G)

77N. Korkmaz 38K. Cihan 23L. Carole 54A. Kocaman 28R. Civelek

7Miguel Cardoso 30A. Opoku 24D. Toköz 37G. Jung

22I. Tuci

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Besiktas Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1F. Günok(G)

39D. Jurásek 14O. Uduokhai 53E. Topçu 2J. Svensson

10O. Kökçü 4O. Ndidi

52Devrim Sahin 27Rafa 7M. Rashica

9T. Abraham

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Kayserispor Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Besiktas Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Kayserispor-0.5 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Besiktas+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Kayserispor · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.50

Besiktas · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Kayserispor	Besiktas
Goztepe	D 1–1 H	L 0–3 A
Istanbul Basaksehir	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 H
Points	2 of 6 · 1.00 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Kayserispor wins1 draws3 Besiktas wins

Goals per game0.25 – 1.75 Over 2.550% Both scored25% Clean sheets25% · 75%

1 Mar 2025Besiktas2–0Kayserispor
30 Sep 2024Kayserispor0–3Besiktas
12 Feb 2024Kayserispor0–0Besiktas
24 Sep 2023Besiktas2–1Kayserispor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Kayserispor	Besiktas	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.00
Conceded per game	1.60	1.75
Match goals	2.40	2.75	2.76
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	20%	75%	52%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	80%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	5	4

	Kayserispor	Besiktas	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.00
Conceded per game	1.60	1.75
Match goals	2.40	2.75	2.76
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	20%	75%	52%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	80%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	5	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Kayserispor	Besiktas	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	7.50
Corners conceded	5.60	3.75
Match total	11.00	11.25	9.49
Over 8.5	80% 4/5	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	80% 4/5	75% 3/4
Over 10.5	60% 3/5	50% 2/4
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.50
Opponent cards	2.00	2.25
Match total	4.40	4.75	4.70
Over 3.5	80% 4/5	75% 3/4
Over 4.5	60% 3/5	25% 1/4

	Kayserispor	Besiktas	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	4.90
Corners conceded	5.60	4.60
Match total	11.00	9.50	9.49
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.20
Opponent cards	2.30	1.70
Match total	4.70	3.90	4.70
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.25league 4.51

Red cards0.00league 0.25

Cards 5+50%league 49%

Fouls23.3league 26.4

Penalties0.50league 0.25

Home wins25%league 39%

Kayserispor

No previous matches with this referee.

Besiktas1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against2 · 0

W25 Apr 25H · Hatayspor5–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.