Kayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Kayserispor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Kayserispor. Kayserispor had 8.1 days of rest, Eyüpspor 8.2 and had to travel 613 km.
Away travel613 kmRest days8.1 · 8.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Kayserispor43%
Draw28%
Eyüpspor29%
Kayserispor40%
Draw27%
Eyüpspor33%
Kayserispor43%
Draw28%
Eyüpspor29%
Kayserispor36%
Draw28%
Eyüpspor36%
Kayserispor43%
Draw28%
Eyüpspor29%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kayseri)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 20
Team strength
Kayserispor
Eyüpspor
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
16
AttackIn forecast
9
17
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KayserisporEyüpspor
0.74
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.81
1.84
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
58%
Scored inContext
52%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
11.32
ShotsContext
10.00
3.65
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
32%
On target shareContext
32%
6.29
Shots in the boxContext
6.24
55%
Box shareContext
59%
7%
ConversionContext
8%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.48
14.00
Shots allowedContext
13.52
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.61
4.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.41
70%
Save rateContext
70%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
349
PassesContext
377
279
Accurate passesContext
305
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.81
FoulsContext
11.74
12.58
Fouls sufferedContext
15.06
2.45
Yellow cardsContext
2.32
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
50%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.10
ShotsContext
8.10
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
31%
On target shareContext
32%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
4.67
55%
Box shareContext
55%
5%
ConversionContext
10%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.10
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
4.44
BlocksContext
3.40
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
71%
Save rateContext
62%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
343
PassesContext
372
275
Accurate passesContext
299
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.30
FoulsContext
12.50
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
16.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kayserispor
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km499 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eyüpspor
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel613 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kayserispor |
Eyüpspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 8.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 613 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 499 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
23L. Carole
4S. Denswil
6S. Güler
2J. Katongo
8L. Bénes
24D. Toköz
7Miguel Cardoso
63F. Chalov
18D. Makarov
9G. Onugkha
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
24J. Yılmaz(G)
77C. Meraş
4Luccas Claro
5B. Ozyurt
2Calegari
28T. İlter
26Metehan Altunbaş
15Charles-Andre Raux Yao
20M. Łęgowski
22Denis Radu
19U. Bozok
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kayserispor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Eyüpspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kayserispor+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Eyüpspor+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Kayserispor · Home
1.00points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-8
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 2.00
Eyüpspor · Away
0.80points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-9
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.53
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kayserispor | Eyüpspor |
|---|---|---|
| Rizespor | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–4 HL 2–4 A | L 0–3 H |
| Kasimpasa | L 0–2 AW 3–2 H | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Samsunspor | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–3 HL 0–4 A | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Genclerbirligi | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–4 AL 0–4 H | L 1–5 AL 0–2 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Besiktas | L 0–1 AL 0–4 H | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 H | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 25 of 90 · 0.83 per game | 27 of 90 · 0.90 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Kayserispor wins3 draws0 Eyüpspor wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 6 Dec 2025Eyüpspor1–1Kayserispor
- 16 Feb 2025Eyüpspor1–1Kayserispor
- 15 Sep 2024Kayserispor2–2Eyüpspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kayserispor | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.74 | 0.81 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.84 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 2.23 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 45% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 42% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 42% | 48% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Kayserispor | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.20 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kayserispor | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 3.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 9.72 | 9.11 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 72% 21/29 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 14/29 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 9/29 | 32% 9/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.52 | 2.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.77 | 2.03 | |
| Match total | 4.29 | 4.51 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 21/31 | 65% 20/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 14/31 | 39% 12/31 | |
| Kayserispor | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 8.60 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.10 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 4.45
Red cards0.10league 0.22
Cards 5+20%league 45%
Fouls24.5league 26.0
Penalties0.20league 0.28
Home wins55%league 41%
Kayserispor2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L4 Apr 26A · Kasimpasa0–22
- L22 Nov 25H · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–31
EyüpsporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kayserispor31 games · scored 23 · conceded 57
1
4
0-15
5
16-30
1
15
31-45
4
9
46-60
6
12
61-75
11
12
76-90
Eyüpspor31 games · scored 25 · conceded 44
3
7
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
6
31-45
5
4
46-60
6
7
61-75
7
16
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
