Kayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Kayserispor
17th · 20 pts · 26 played
DWDLL
1–0Full time
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 17 pts · 26 played
LDLDW
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Fatih Karagümrük. Kayserispor had 3.8 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük 5.8 and had to travel 613 km.
Away travel613 kmRest days3.8 · 5.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Kayserispor38%
Draw28%
Fatih Karagümrük33%
Kayserispor44%
Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük30%
Kayserispor37%
Draw28%
Fatih Karagümrük35%
Kayserispor32%
Draw28%
Fatih Karagümrük40%
Kayserispor39%
Draw28%
Fatih Karagümrük34%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kayseri)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 33
Team strength
KayserisporFatih Karagümrük
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
16
AttackIn forecast
13
17
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KayserisporFatih Karagümrük
0.77
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.92
1.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.77
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
62%
Scored inContext
62%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
11.08
ShotsContext
10.35
3.62
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
31%
6.23
Shots in the boxContext
5.69
56%
Box shareContext
55%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
2.36
OffsidesContext
2.54
14.38
Shots allowedContext
14.00
5.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.88
3.95
BlocksContext
3.25
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.96
72%
Save rateContext
65%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
341
PassesContext
360
270
Accurate passesContext
285
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.66
12.31
FoulsContext
13.50
12.73
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.42
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
-0.65
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
50%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.10
ShotsContext
10.70
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
27%
On target shareContext
39%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
59%
Box shareContext
58%
5%
ConversionContext
9%
2.70
OffsidesContext
2.60
16.20
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.22
4.67
BlocksContext
2.56
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
74%
Save rateContext
64%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
318
PassesContext
378
247
Accurate passesContext
307
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.69
11.30
FoulsContext
12.80
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kayserispor
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km585 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel613 km1,700 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kayserispor |
Fatih Karagümrük |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 5.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 613 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 585 km | 1,700 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.9 | 16.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
28R. Civelek
4S. Denswil
6S. Güler
30J. Brenet
15Y. Aït Bennasser
33F. Soyalp
8L. Bénes
10João Mendes
7Miguel Cardoso
63F. Chalov
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
25F. Mladenović
94Anıl Yiğit Çınar
3Igor Lichnovsky
47Ricardo Esgaio
6B. Elmaz
5M. Kranevitter
72Baris Kalayci
8B. Özcan
70Serginho
21T. Çukur
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kayserispor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Fatih Karagümrük
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kayserispor+1.8 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Fatih Karagümrük-1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Kayserispor · Home
0.75points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-7
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.17
Fatih Karagümrük · Away
0.38points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-10
- Scored
- 0.92
- Conceded
- 2.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kayserispor | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H | D 0–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–3 HL 0–4 A | L 1–3 AL 3–4 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–4 AL 0–4 H | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–1 AL 0–4 H | L 0–2 H |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Rizespor | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–4 A | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–2 H | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 19 of 75 · 0.76 per game | 16 of 75 · 0.64 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Kayserispor wins2 draws1 Fatih Karagümrük wins
Goals per game1.67 – 2.67
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 24 Oct 2025Fatih Karagümrük2–2Kayserispor
- 4 May 2024Kayserispor2–2Fatih Karagümrük
- 10 Jan 2024Fatih Karagümrük4–1Kayserispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kayserispor | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.77 | 0.92 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.85 | 1.77 | |
| Match goals | 2.62 | 2.69 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 46% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 38% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Kayserispor | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.60 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kayserispor | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 5.42 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 9.30 | 9.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 18/24 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 12/24 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 8/24 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.96 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.73 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 4.23 | 4.15 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 17/26 | 69% 18/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 11/26 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Kayserispor | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 9.20 | 9.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.20 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.55league 4.40
Red cards0.21league 0.21
Cards 5+48%league 45%
Fouls23.8league 26.0
Penalties0.30league 0.26
Home wins27%league 38%
Kayserispor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W22 Feb 26H · Antalyaspor1–03
Fatih Karagümrük1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L30 Nov 25H · Besiktas0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kayserispor26 games · scored 20 · conceded 48
1
3
0-15
4
16-30
1
13
31-45
4
8
46-60
5
10
61-75
9
10
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük26 games · scored 24 · conceded 46
3
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
5
7
31-45
1
9
46-60
3
13
61-75
8
6
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 5 · conceded 16
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
5
61-75
4
4
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
6
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
