Kayserispor vs Fenerbahce – 11 Apr 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 29 Sat, Apr 11 · 18:00 RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayseri

Kayserispor 16th · 23 pts · 28 played DLLWL

0–4Full time

Fenerbahce 3rd · 63 pts · 28 played DWLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce were slight favourites.

Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kayserispor. Kayserispor had 7.2 days of rest, Fenerbahce 6 and had to travel 613 km.

Away travel613 kmRest days7.2 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Kayserispor18%

Draw24%

Fenerbahce58%

Expected goals 0.95 – 1.86

Kayserispor14%

Draw21%

Fenerbahce65%

Expected goals 0.86 – 2.07

Kayserispor18%

Draw23%

Fenerbahce59%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.88

Kayserispor14%

Draw21%

Fenerbahce66%

Expected goals 0.85 – 2.08

Kayserispor19%

Draw24%

Fenerbahce57%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.79

Over 2.5 53% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Kayseri)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 20

Team strength

Kayserispor

Fenerbahce

13 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

13 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

16 AttackIn forecast 75

17 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kayserispor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Kayserispor

Fenerbahce

0.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.21

1.79 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.81

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.83

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.40

61% Scored inContext 89%

21% Clean sheetsContext 32%

10.93 ShotsContext 16.57

3.54 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.96

32% On target shareContext 36%

6.18 Shots in the boxContext 9.71

56% Box shareContext 58%

7% ConversionContext 13%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.05

13.86 Shots allowedContext 9.82

5.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.21

3.78 BlocksContext 3.65

3.96 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

72% Save rateContext 77%

47% PossessionIn forecast 59%

351 PassesContext 475

281 Accurate passesContext 409

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.70 Team ratingContext 7.00

12.61 FoulsContext 11.57

12.75 Fouls sufferedContext 14.11

2.39 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 28 and 28 games

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21

-0.58 Goals minus xGContext +0.42

50% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.80 ShotsContext 13.70

2.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

27% On target shareContext 35%

6.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.90

57% Box shareContext 58%

5% ConversionContext 14%

3.20 OffsidesContext 1.88

13.00 Shots allowedContext 12.10

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.78 BlocksContext 3.50

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

74% Save rateContext 68%

47% PossessionIn forecast 59%

352 PassesContext 479

282 Accurate passesContext 410

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.93

12.50 FoulsContext 9.50

13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 14.90

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kayserispor

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,225 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fenerbahce

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel613 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Kayserispor	Fenerbahce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 4 Apr	6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	613 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,225 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kayserispor Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

25B. Bayazıt(G)

30J. Brenet 4S. Denswil 6S. Güler 2J. Katongo

15Y. Aït Bennasser

7Miguel Cardoso 24D. Toköz 33F. Soyalp 18D. Makarov

63F. Chalov

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31Ederson(G)

3A. Brown 24J. Oosterwolde 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

6M. Guendouzi 17N. Kanté

9M. Aktürkoğlu 94Talisca 45D. Nene

26S. Chérif

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Kayserispor Absences are shown before kick-off

Fenerbahce Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Kayserispor+0.3 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Fenerbahce-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Kayserispor · Home 0.92points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-7
Scored: 0.77
Conceded: 2.00

Fenerbahce · Away 2.07points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 8-5-1
Scored: 2.14
Conceded: 1.07

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Kayserispor	Fenerbahce
Kasimpasa	L 0–2 AW 3–2 H	D 1–1 HD 1–1 A
Fatih Karagümrük	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A	L 0–2 AW 2–1 H
Samsunspor	L 1–2 AL 1–3 H	W 3–2 HD 0–0 A
Trabzonspor	L 1–3 HL 0–4 A	W 3–2 AW 1–0 H
Genclerbirligi	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	W 3–1 HW 3–1 A
Antalyaspor	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A	D 2–2 AW 2–0 H
Goztepe	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 HD 0–0 A
Kocaelispor	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A	W 2–0 AW 3–1 H
Galatasaray	L 0–4 AL 0–4 H	D 1–1 H
Istanbul Basaksehir	L 0–3 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Besiktas	L 0–1 AL 0–4 H	W 1–0 HW 3–2 A
Konyaspor	D 1–1 A	W 4–0 H
Alanyaspor	D 0–0 H	W 3–2 AD 2–2 H
Eyüpspor	D 1–1 A	W 3–0 A
Rizespor	W 1–0 A	W 5–2 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep	L 0–3 H	W 4–1 HW 4–0 A
Points	23 of 81 · 0.85 per game	60 of 81 · 2.22 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

0 Kayserispor wins1 draws4 Fenerbahce wins

Goals per game2.00 – 4.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%

9 Nov 2025Fenerbahce4–2Kayserispor
20 Apr 2025Fenerbahce3–3Kayserispor
23 Nov 2024Kayserispor2–6Fenerbahce
12 May 2024Fenerbahce3–0Kayserispor
20 Dec 2023Kayserispor3–4Fenerbahce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Kayserispor	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	0.75	2.21
Conceded per game	1.79	1.00
Match goals	2.54	3.21	2.81
Over 1.5	75%	86%
Over 2.5	46%	57%	53%
Over 3.5	32%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	64%	52%
Clean sheets	21%	32%
Failed to score	39%	11%
Games	28	28

	Kayserispor	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.90
Conceded per game	1.60	1.50
Match goals	2.10	3.40	2.81
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	53%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	30%	70%	52%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Kayserispor	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	4.85	6.80
Corners conceded	4.81	4.64
Match total	9.66	11.44	9.46
Over 8.5	73% 19/26	76% 19/25
Over 9.5	50% 13/26	64% 16/25
Over 10.5	31% 8/26	56% 14/25
Cards
Cards	2.46	2.29
Opponent cards	1.71	3.11
Match total	4.17	5.40	4.63
Over 3.5	64% 18/28	75% 21/28
Over 4.5	39% 11/28	57% 16/28

	Kayserispor	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	6.10	8.10
Corners conceded	4.30	5.30
Match total	10.40	13.40	9.46
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.20
Opponent cards	1.10	2.60
Match total	3.30	4.80	4.63
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 20 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.95league 4.40

Red cards0.10league 0.21

Cards 5+45%league 44%

Fouls24.5league 26.1

Penalties0.25league 0.27

Home wins55%league 40%

Kayserispor

No previous matches with this referee.

Fenerbahce3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

W20 Dec 25A · Eyüpspor3–01
W2 Nov 25A · Besiktas3–23
W28 Sep 25H · Antalyaspor2–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.