Kayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Kayserispor
16th · 9 pts · 12 played
LLDWL
0–3Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep
7th · 19 pts · 12 played
WWLDD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Gazişehir Gaziantep were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 16). Absences weigh more on Gazişehir Gaziantep. Kayserispor had 12.8 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 14 and had to travel 250 km.
Away travel250 kmRest days12.8 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Kayserispor39%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep34%
Kayserispor37%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep36%
Kayserispor37%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep36%
Kayserispor32%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep42%
Kayserispor39%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep34%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kayseri)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen
- Cards per match 2.9
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 9
Team strength
KayserisporGazişehir Gaziantep
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
16
AttackIn forecast
15
17
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KayserisporGazişehir Gaziantep
1.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.42
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
75%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.42
ShotsContext
14.58
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
37%
On target shareContext
33%
6.83
Shots in the boxContext
8.58
60%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.89
13.50
Shots allowedContext
12.25
5.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.11
BlocksContext
2.50
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
65%
Save rateContext
61%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
357
PassesContext
420
284
Accurate passesContext
354
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.00
FoulsContext
13.17
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
2.83
Yellow cardsContext
3.17
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
15.30
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
38%
On target shareContext
36%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
58%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.75
13.20
Shots allowedContext
11.90
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.13
BlocksContext
2.50
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
65%
Save rateContext
65%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
370
PassesContext
433
296
Accurate passesContext
366
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.97
14.00
FoulsContext
13.30
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
3.10
Yellow cardsContext
3.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kayserispor
Rest12.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,225 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel250 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kayserispor |
Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 14Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 250 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,225 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
1O. Piri(G)
28R. Civelek
23L. Carole
4S. Denswil
30A. Opoku
15Y. Ait Bennasser
7Miguel Cardoso
10João Mendes
33F. Soyalp
8L. Bénes
9G. Onugkha
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
20Z. Görgen(G)
4A. Kızıldağ
17S. Güler
23T. Sanuç
77K. Rodrigues
3D. Camara
61O. Özçiçek
10K. Kozłowski
2Luis Pérez
44A. Maxim
9M. Bayo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kayserispor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kayserispor+1.8 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Gazişehir Gaziantep-1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Kayserispor · Home
0.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away
1.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Kayserispor | Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce | L 2–4 A | L 0–4 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Samsunspor | L 1–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 1–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–4 H | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 7 of 27 · 0.78 per game | 17 of 27 · 1.89 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Kayserispor wins2 draws1 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.00
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 15 Mar 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep1–0Kayserispor
- 19 Oct 2024Kayserispor2–2Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 3 Feb 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep1–1Kayserispor
- 16 Sep 2023Kayserispor2–0Gazişehir Gaziantep
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kayserispor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.08 | 1.42 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.42 | 3.08 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 67% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 58% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 33% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Kayserispor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.10 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kayserispor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.82 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.82 | 9.25 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 7/11 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 4/11 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.92 | 3.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 4.92 | 7.00 | 4.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 10/12 | 92% 11/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 7/12 | 83% 10/12 | |
| Kayserispor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.77 | 9.90 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 3.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 7.20 | 4.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.89league 4.58
Red cards0.00league 0.26
Cards 5+22%league 50%
Fouls23.4league 26.1
Penalties0.11league 0.26
Home wins56%league 39%
KayserisporNo previous matches with this referee.
Gazişehir Gaziantep1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L3 May 25A · Rizespor0–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kayserispor12 games · scored 13 · conceded 28
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
7
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
4
61-75
5
6
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep12 games · scored 17 · conceded 20
3
4
0-15
2
5
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 23
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
4
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
3
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
