Kayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 19). Kayserispor had 14.9 days of rest, Goztepe 15.8 and had to travel 726 km.
Away travel726 kmRest days14.9 · 15.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Kayserispor37%
Draw28%
Goztepe35%
Kayserispor38%
Draw27%
Goztepe35%
Kayserispor37%
Draw28%
Goztepe35%
Kayserispor31%
Draw27%
Goztepe42%
Kayserispor38%
Draw27%
Goztepe35%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kayseri)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan
- Cards per match 5.9
- Penalties per match 0.55
- Matches 11
Team strength
Kayserispor
Goztepe
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
16
AttackIn forecast
39
17
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KayserisporGoztepe
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.25
0.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
67%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
75%
9.67
ShotsContext
15.50
2.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.25
24%
On target shareContext
34%
4.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
53%
Box shareContext
57%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
—
OffsidesContext
1.00
13.33
Shots allowedContext
11.25
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
2.00
BlocksContext
4.50
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.25
69%
Save rateContext
83%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
334
PassesContext
250
264
Accurate passesContext
180
79%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.67
FoulsContext
18.25
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
9.25
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
80%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.20
ShotsContext
18.30
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
39%
On target shareContext
34%
4.90
Shots in the boxContext
12.50
61%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.71
OffsidesContext
1.44
16.90
Shots allowedContext
11.70
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.75
BlocksContext
3.56
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
71%
Save rateContext
60%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
328
PassesContext
288
261
Accurate passesContext
211
80%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.02
10.40
FoulsContext
17.90
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kayserispor
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Goztepe
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel726 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kayserispor |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 15.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 726 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
1O. Piri(G)
23L. Carole
4S. Denswil
37G. Jung
28R. Civelek
24D. Toköz
7Miguel Cardoso
8L. Bénes
10João Mendes
20Carlos Mané
9G. Onugkha
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
4T. Altıkardeş
15A. Cherni
6Rhaldney
30A. Dennis
2A. Kurtulan
10Junior Olaitan
9Juan
39Janderson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kayserispor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kayserispor+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Goztepe+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Kayserispor · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Goztepe · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Kayserispor wins0 draws1 Goztepe wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 23 Feb 2025Kayserispor1–0Goztepe
- 23 Sep 2024Goztepe3–0Kayserispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kayserispor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 1.75 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 25% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 25% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 25% | |
| Games | 3 | 4 |
| Kayserispor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 1.75 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 25% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 25% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 25% | |
| Games | 3 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kayserispor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 9.25 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 5.50 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Kayserispor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.22 | 9.30 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.20 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.73league 4.23
Red cards0.18league 0.29
Cards 5+64%league 43%
Fouls24.1league 25.1
Penalties0.55league 0.29
Home wins55%league 37%
Kayserispor2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L1 Jun 25A · Samsunspor1–23
- W27 Apr 25H · Rizespor1–01
GoztepeNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kayserispor3 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Goztepe4 games · scored 6 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
7
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
