Kayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Kocaelispor were slight favourites.
Kocaelispor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 14). Absences weigh more on Kayserispor. Kayserispor had 7.9 days of rest, Kocaelispor 6.9 and had to travel 694 km.
Away travel694 kmRest days7.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Kayserispor32%
Draw28%
Kocaelispor40%
Kayserispor33%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor39%
Kayserispor32%
Draw29%
Kocaelispor39%
Kayserispor25%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor47%
Kayserispor32%
Draw28%
Kocaelispor40%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kayseri)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeKadir Saglam
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 13
Team strength
Kayserispor
Kocaelispor
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
16
AttackIn forecast
16
17
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KayserisporKocaelispor
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
2.05
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.05
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
60%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
10.70
ShotsContext
10.10
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
35%
On target shareContext
33%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.15
55%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.19
OffsidesContext
2.25
14.65
Shots allowedContext
10.60
5.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.29
3.69
BlocksContext
3.37
4.47
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.43
71%
Save rateContext
64%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
348
PassesContext
362
278
Accurate passesContext
289
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.35
FoulsContext
13.95
12.85
Fouls sufferedContext
13.25
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.64
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
50%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.00
ShotsContext
10.80
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
33%
On target shareContext
32%
4.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
50%
Box shareContext
61%
9%
ConversionContext
6%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.70
16.60
Shots allowedContext
9.20
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.86
4.89
BlocksContext
3.33
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.83
74%
Save rateContext
58%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
329
PassesContext
386
263
Accurate passesContext
314
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.00
FoulsContext
12.89
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kayserispor
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,225 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kocaelispor
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel694 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kayserispor |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 2 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 694 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,225 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
27D. Dönmezer(G)
23L. Carole
4S. Denswil
6S. Güler
24D. Toköz
15Y. Aït Bennasser
10João Mendes
8L. Bénes
61G. Sağlam
7Miguel Cardoso
63F. Chalov
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
35Gökhan Değirmenci(G)
21M. Haïdara
6H. Smolčić
5B. Balogh
2A. Dijksteel
14Show
8H. Keïta
99R. Rivas
75T. Bingöl
70C. Keles
9B. Petković
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kayserispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kayserispor-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Kocaelispor+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Kayserispor · Home
0.67points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-5
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.33
Kocaelispor · Away
0.67points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-5
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kayserispor | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | L 0–4 AL 0–4 H | W 1–0 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Besiktas | L 0–1 AL 0–4 H | L 1–3 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Rizespor | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–4 A | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Samsunspor | L 1–3 H | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–4 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Goztepe | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 14 of 57 · 0.74 per game | 23 of 57 · 1.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Kayserispor wins1 draws0 Kocaelispor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 30 Aug 2025Kocaelispor1–1Kayserispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kayserispor | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.05 | 1.05 | |
| Match goals | 2.85 | 1.85 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 55% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 40% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Kayserispor | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 1.30 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kayserispor | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.39 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 3.84 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.47 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 12/18 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 9/18 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 6/18 | 16% 3/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.65 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.95 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.60 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 15/20 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 10/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Kayserispor | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 8.50 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.70 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kadir Saglam Türkiye · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.69league 4.41
Red cards0.08league 0.23
Cards 5+46%league 46%
Fouls28.5league 25.9
Penalties0.15league 0.26
Home wins31%league 35%
Kayserispor4 with this referee
Record1-3-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Nov 25H · Kasimpasa3–23
- D20 Sep 25A · Antalyaspor1–13
- D17 Aug 25A · Istanbul Basaksehir1–11
- D25 May 25H · BB Bodrumspor1–13
Kocaelispor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W18 Oct 25A · Konyaspor3–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kayserispor20 games · scored 16 · conceded 41
1
3
0-15
4
16-30
1
10
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
8
61-75
6
9
76-90
Kocaelispor20 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
3
0-15
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
7
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
6
61-75
2
3
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 6 · conceded 7
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
