Kayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Konyaspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kayserispor. Kayserispor had 7.9 days of rest, Konyaspor 7.9 and had to travel 279 km.
Away travel279 kmRest days7.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Kayserispor35%
Draw26%
Konyaspor39%
Kayserispor34%
Draw27%
Konyaspor38%
Kayserispor36%
Draw26%
Konyaspor38%
Kayserispor28%
Draw25%
Konyaspor47%
Kayserispor35%
Draw26%
Konyaspor39%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kayseri)
No weather data yet
RefereeMelek Dakan
Team strength
Kayserispor
Konyaspor
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
16
AttackIn forecast
13
17
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKonyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KayserisporKonyaspor
0.76
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
1.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.45
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
61%
Scored inContext
79%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
11.67
ShotsContext
12.42
3.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.06
33%
On target shareContext
33%
6.55
Shots in the boxContext
7.55
56%
Box shareContext
61%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
2.39
OffsidesContext
2.07
13.85
Shots allowedContext
12.67
5.15
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.31
3.86
BlocksContext
3.32
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.81
70%
Save rateContext
64%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
350
PassesContext
391
281
Accurate passesContext
320
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.85
FoulsContext
12.06
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.36
2.36
Yellow cardsContext
2.39
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.10
ShotsContext
11.20
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
31%
On target shareContext
38%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
56%
Box shareContext
65%
5%
ConversionContext
13%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.13
12.70
Shots allowedContext
12.90
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.22
BlocksContext
3.78
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
65%
Save rateContext
67%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
355
PassesContext
369
290
Accurate passesContext
293
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.82
14.00
FoulsContext
13.40
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kayserispor
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km934 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Konyaspor
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel279 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kayserispor |
Konyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 May | 7.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 279 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 934 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 90.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
27D. Dönmezer(G)
23L. Carole
6S. Güler
2J. Katongo
30J. Brenet
17B. Kapacak
61G. Sağlam
24D. Toköz
8L. Bénes
22I. Tuci
63F. Chalov
Konyaspor
Confirmed XI
1D. Ertaş(G)
24A. Boşluk
89Ata Yanık
22R. Baniya
3K. Subaşı
20R. Bazoer
21J. Jo
32S. Svendsen
30Ismail Esat Buga
23Y. Andzouana
27Eren Yagmur
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kayserispor
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Konyaspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kayserispor-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Konyaspor+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Kayserispor · Home
1.00points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-8
- Scored
- 0.81
- Conceded
- 1.94
Konyaspor · Away
1.00points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-8
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.81
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kayserispor | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | L 1–3 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Rizespor | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–4 HL 2–4 A | L 0–3 HL 0–4 A |
| Kasimpasa | L 0–2 AW 3–2 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Samsunspor | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–3 HL 0–4 A | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Genclerbirligi | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–4 AL 0–4 H | W 2–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–1 AL 0–4 H | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Points | 26 of 96 · 0.81 per game | 39 of 96 · 1.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Kayserispor wins3 draws1 Konyaspor wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.40
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 20 Dec 2025Konyaspor1–1Kayserispor
- 8 Feb 2025Kayserispor3–2Konyaspor
- 31 Aug 2024Konyaspor0–0Kayserispor
- 18 May 2024Kayserispor2–2Konyaspor
- 24 Dec 2023Konyaspor2–0Kayserispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kayserispor | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.76 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.85 | 1.45 | |
| Match goals | 2.61 | 2.73 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 55% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 64% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 21% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Kayserispor | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kayserispor | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.64 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.46 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 22/30 | 48% 16/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 15/30 | 48% 16/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 10/30 | 36% 12/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.42 | 2.45 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.73 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 4.15 | 4.66 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 22/33 | 67% 22/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 14/33 | 36% 12/33 | |
| Kayserispor | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 10.55 | 9.40 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.50 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Kayserispor33 games · scored 25 · conceded 61
2
6
0-15
5
16-30
1
16
31-45
5
9
46-60
6
13
61-75
11
12
76-90
Konyaspor33 games · scored 42 · conceded 48
1
3
0-15
11
7
16-30
5
12
31-45
6
11
46-60
3
9
61-75
16
6
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
6
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Konyaspor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
