Kayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rizespor were slight favourites.
Rizespor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Rizespor. Kayserispor had 4.9 days of rest, Rizespor 7.9 and had to travel 499 km.
Away travel499 kmRest days4.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Kayserispor28%
Draw26%
Rizespor45%
Kayserispor31%
Draw27%
Rizespor42%
Kayserispor27%
Draw26%
Rizespor46%
Kayserispor22%
Draw25%
Rizespor53%
Kayserispor29%
Draw26%
Rizespor45%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kayseri)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeGurcan Hasova
- Cards per match 6.4
- Penalties per match 0.60
- Matches 5
Team strength
Kayserispor
Rizespor
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
16
AttackIn forecast
22
17
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KayserisporRizespor
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.37
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
57%
Scored inContext
77%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
11.13
ShotsContext
11.90
3.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
33%
On target shareContext
31%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
55%
Box shareContext
55%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.17
14.13
Shots allowedContext
13.30
5.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.68
3.96
BlocksContext
3.83
3.93
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.37
70%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
352
PassesContext
378
282
Accurate passesContext
309
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.73
FoulsContext
13.60
12.53
Fouls sufferedContext
12.77
2.43
Yellow cardsContext
2.47
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.03
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
50%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
12.50
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
28%
On target shareContext
37%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
57%
Box shareContext
61%
4%
ConversionContext
14%
2.89
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.10
Shots allowedContext
12.30
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.44
BlocksContext
3.80
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
68%
Save rateContext
74%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
360
PassesContext
377
291
Accurate passesContext
306
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.50
FoulsContext
14.10
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kayserispor
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km499 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rizespor
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel499 km1,940 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kayserispor |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 20 Apr | 7.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 17 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 499 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 499 km | 1,940 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
23L. Carole
4S. Denswil
6S. Güler
2J. Katongo
18D. Makarov
15Y. Aït Bennasser
33F. Soyalp
7Miguel Cardoso
9G. Onugkha
24D. Toköz
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
27M. Sagnan
4A. Mocsi
54M. Pala
6G. Papanikolaou
7V. Mihăilă
20Q. Laçi
10I. Olawoyin
17A. Awokoya-Mebude
9A. Sowe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kayserispor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rizespor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kayserispor+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Rizespor-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Kayserispor · Home
0.86points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-8
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 2.14
Rizespor · Away
0.93points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-8-5
- Scored
- 1.47
- Conceded
- 1.53
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kayserispor | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–4 HL 2–4 A | D 2–2 AL 2–5 H |
| Kasimpasa | L 0–2 AW 3–2 H | W 3–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Samsunspor | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H | W 4–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–3 HL 0–4 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HW 5–2 A |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–4 AL 0–4 H | L 0–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–1 AL 0–4 H | L 0–1 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 20 of 87 · 0.69 per game | 37 of 87 · 1.28 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Kayserispor wins0 draws2 Rizespor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.40
Over 2.560%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets40% · 40%
- 29 Nov 2025Rizespor0–1Kayserispor
- 27 Apr 2025Kayserispor1–0Rizespor
- 1 Dec 2024Rizespor3–0Kayserispor
- 2 Mar 2024Rizespor3–0Kayserispor
- 21 Oct 2023Kayserispor3–1Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kayserispor | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.37 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.77 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 57% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 57% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 23% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Kayserispor | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.90 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kayserispor | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 3.81 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.82 | 4.81 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 8.62 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 20/28 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 13/28 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 8/28 | 26% 7/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.77 | 1.77 | |
| Match total | 4.27 | 4.34 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 20/30 | 60% 18/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 13/30 | 40% 12/30 | |
| Kayserispor | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.23 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.10 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gurcan Hasova Türkiye · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.20league 4.45
Red cards0.20league 0.22
Cards 5+100%league 46%
Fouls22.4league 26.1
Penalties0.60league 0.28
Home wins40%league 40%
KayserisporNo previous matches with this referee.
RizesporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kayserispor30 games · scored 21 · conceded 57
1
4
0-15
5
16-30
1
15
31-45
4
9
46-60
6
12
61-75
9
12
76-90
Rizespor30 games · scored 41 · conceded 42
6
4
0-15
3
6
16-30
8
5
31-45
9
5
46-60
3
9
61-75
12
13
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 5 · conceded 16
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
