Kayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Samsunspor were slight favourites.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 16). Kayserispor had 15.8 days of rest, Samsunspor 13.8 and had to travel 292 km.
Away travel292 kmRest days15.8 · 13.8Matches / 14d0 · 1
Kayserispor32%
Draw27%
Samsunspor41%
Kayserispor31%
Draw27%
Samsunspor42%
Kayserispor31%
Draw27%
Samsunspor42%
Kayserispor25%
Draw26%
Samsunspor49%
Kayserispor32%
Draw27%
Samsunspor41%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kayseri)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeUmit Ozturk
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 4
Team strength
Kayserispor
Samsunspor
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
16
AttackIn forecast
15
17
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSamsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KayserisporSamsunspor
0.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
2.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
63%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
12.13
ShotsContext
12.13
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
33%
On target shareContext
32%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
58%
Box shareContext
58%
5%
ConversionContext
10%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.29
13.13
Shots allowedContext
11.75
6.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.38
2.33
BlocksContext
3.57
4.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
69%
Save rateContext
81%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
360
PassesContext
392
286
Accurate passesContext
322
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.88
FoulsContext
14.25
13.25
Fouls sufferedContext
9.75
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
70%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.50
ShotsContext
11.10
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
36%
On target shareContext
33%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
58%
Box shareContext
62%
6%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
15.40
Shots allowedContext
12.20
7.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.25
BlocksContext
3.00
5.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
74%
Save rateContext
80%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
349
PassesContext
366
274
Accurate passesContext
294
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.00
FoulsContext
13.60
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kayserispor
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Samsunspor
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel292 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kayserispor |
Samsunspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 3 Oct | 13.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 292 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
23L. Carole
54A. Kocaman
4S. Denswil
28R. Civelek
15Y. Aït Bennasser
33F. Soyalp
7Miguel Cardoso
8L. Bénes
20Carlos Mané
22I. Tuci
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
4R. van Drongelen
37Ľ. Šatka
18Z. Yavru
29A. Makoumbou
7A. Musaba
10J. Ntcham
21C. Holse
70T. Coulibaly
9M. Mouandilmadji
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kayserispor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Samsunspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kayserispor+0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Samsunspor-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Kayserispor · Home
0.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Samsunspor · Away
1.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Kayserispor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Antalyaspor | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Kayserispor wins0 draws3 Samsunspor wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 1 Jun 2025Samsunspor2–1Kayserispor
- 11 Jan 2025Kayserispor0–1Samsunspor
- 25 Jan 2024Samsunspor2–0Kayserispor
- 27 Aug 2023Kayserispor2–1Samsunspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kayserispor | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.63 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.13 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.25 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 63% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Kayserispor | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.63 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.13 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.25 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 63% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kayserispor | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 6.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.43 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 10.14 | 10.88 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 4.88 | 4.76 | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Kayserispor | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.22 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 11.22 | 11.30 | 9.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 5.30 | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Umit Ozturk Türkiye · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.73
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+50%league 54%
Fouls23.8league 26.7
Penalties0.25league 0.30
Home wins25%league 35%
Kayserispor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D3 May 25A · Alanyaspor1–12
SamsunsporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kayserispor8 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Samsunspor8 games · scored 10 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 20
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
61-75
3
7
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
