Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor – 9 Mar 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 25 Mon, Mar 9 · 17:00 RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Kayseri

Kayserispor 17th · 20 pts · 24 played LLDWD

1–3Full time

Trabzonspor 3rd · 51 pts · 24 played DWLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Trabzonspor were slight favourites.

Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kayserispor. Kayserispor had 8.2 days of rest, Trabzonspor 10 and had to travel 441 km.

Away travel441 kmRest days8.2 · 10Matches / 14d1 · 1

Kayserispor23%

Draw26%

Trabzonspor51%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.65

Kayserispor23%

Draw25%

Trabzonspor52%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.70

Kayserispor23%

Draw26%

Trabzonspor51%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.63

Kayserispor18%

Draw24%

Trabzonspor58%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.85

Kayserispor24%

Draw26%

Trabzonspor50%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.60

Over 2.5 50% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Kayseri)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 17

Team strength

Kayserispor

Trabzonspor

15 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

13 Current StrengthIn forecast 46

16 AttackIn forecast 54

17 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kayserispor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Trabzonspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Kayserispor

Trabzonspor

0.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.79 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.17

1.00 xGVia Att/Def 1.44

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.56

58% Scored inContext 92%

21% Clean sheetsContext 29%

11.00 ShotsContext 15.17

3.58 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.63

33% On target shareContext 37%

6.21 Shots in the boxContext 9.39

56% Box shareContext 60%

7% ConversionContext 13%

2.45 OffsidesContext 2.17

14.13 Shots allowedContext 13.00

5.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.36

3.68 BlocksContext 3.68

4.19 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

73% Save rateContext 77%

47% PossessionIn forecast 55%

347 PassesContext 432

276 Accurate passesContext 374

79% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.69 Team ratingContext 7.00

12.42 FoulsContext 11.92

12.88 Fouls sufferedContext 13.29

2.54 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 24 and 24 games

0.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.98 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

-0.58 Goals minus xGContext +0.79

40% Scored inContext 100%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.50 ShotsContext 16.10

2.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20

28% On target shareContext 39%

5.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

54% Box shareContext 56%

4% ConversionContext 14%

2.90 OffsidesContext 1.71

15.70 Shots allowedContext 11.50

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

4.25 BlocksContext 3.00

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

79% Save rateContext 62%

44% PossessionIn forecast 60%

330 PassesContext 472

259 Accurate passesContext 416

79% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.75 Team ratingContext 7.00

11.40 FoulsContext 11.70

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kayserispor

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Trabzonspor

Rest10 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel441 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Kayserispor	Trabzonspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Mar	10Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	441 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	524 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kayserispor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25B. Bayazıt(G)

28R. Civelek 4S. Denswil 6S. Güler 30J. Brenet

8L. Bénes 24D. Toköz

33F. Soyalp 7Miguel Cardoso 18D. Makarov

63F. Chalov

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Trabzonspor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

24A. Onana(G)

19M. Eskihellaç 44A. Batagov 15S. Savić 20Wagner Pina

11O. Tufan 42Christ Inao Oulaï

10E. Muçi 99F. da Silva 22O. Zubkov

30E. Onuachu

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Kayserispor Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Trabzonspor Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Kayserispor-0.1 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Trabzonspor+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Kayserispor · Home 0.82points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-6
Scored: 0.73
Conceded: 2.09

Trabzonspor · Away 2.17points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 8-2-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Kayserispor	Trabzonspor
Genclerbirligi	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	L 3–4 A
Antalyaspor	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Goztepe	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	W 2–1 A
Kocaelispor	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H
Galatasaray	L 0–4 AL 0–4 H	D 0–0 A
Istanbul Basaksehir	L 0–3 HD 1–1 A	W 4–3 A
Besiktas	L 0–1 AL 0–4 H	D 3–3 H
Konyaspor	D 1–1 A	W 3–1 H
Alanyaspor	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 H
Eyüpspor	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 H
Rizespor	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep	L 0–3 H	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
Fenerbahce	L 2–4 A	L 2–3 HL 0–1 A
Kasimpasa	W 3–2 H	W 2–1 HW 1–0 A
Fatih Karagümrük	D 2–2 A	W 3–1 HW 4–3 A
Samsunspor	L 1–3 H	W 3–0 AD 1–1 H
Points	20 of 69 · 0.87 per game	48 of 69 · 2.09 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Kayserispor wins2 draws2 Trabzonspor wins

Goals per game0.80 – 1.60 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets40% · 40%

3 Oct 2025Trabzonspor4–0Kayserispor
1 Feb 2025Kayserispor0–0Trabzonspor
19 Sep 2024Trabzonspor2–2Kayserispor
20 Apr 2024Kayserispor1–2Trabzonspor
3 Dec 2023Trabzonspor0–1Kayserispor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Kayserispor	Trabzonspor	Forecast
Scored per game	0.75	2.00
Conceded per game	1.79	1.17
Match goals	2.54	3.17	2.69
Over 1.5	75%	79%
Over 2.5	46%	58%	50%
Over 3.5	33%	33%
Both teams scored	50%	67%	53%
Clean sheets	21%	29%
Failed to score	42%	8%
Games	24	24

	Kayserispor	Trabzonspor	Forecast
Scored per game	0.40	2.30
Conceded per game	1.20	1.60
Match goals	1.60	3.90	2.69
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	30%	90%	50%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	90%	53%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	60%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Kayserispor	Trabzonspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.55	4.73
Corners conceded	4.91	4.95
Match total	9.46	9.68	9.34
Over 8.5	73% 16/22	64% 14/22
Over 9.5	45% 10/22	50% 11/22
Over 10.5	27% 6/22	36% 8/22
Cards
Cards	2.58	1.79
Opponent cards	1.83	2.38
Match total	4.41	4.17	4.69
Over 3.5	71% 17/24	50% 12/24
Over 4.5	46% 11/24	29% 7/24

	Kayserispor	Trabzonspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	4.90
Corners conceded	4.80	5.40
Match total	9.00	10.30	9.34
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.10
Opponent cards	1.70	2.40
Match total	4.10	4.50	4.69
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 17 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.76league 4.46

Red cards0.12league 0.21

Cards 5+35%league 46%

Fouls26.5league 26.1

Penalties0.29league 0.26

Home wins29%league 38%

Kayserispor1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W29 Nov 25A · Rizespor1–02

Trabzonspor2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D1 Nov 25A · Galatasaray0–02
W18 Aug 25A · Kasimpasa1–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.