Kilmarnock
Attack—
Defense risk—
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Sun, Aug 9 · 13:30
The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park, Kilmarnock
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel32 kmRest days? · 5.8Matches / 14d0 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Kilmarnock—%
Draw—%
Celtic—%
Weather (Kilmarnock)
No weather data yet
RefereeRyan Lee
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 11
Team strength
Kilmarnock
Celtic
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
17
AttackIn forecast
74
16
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCeltic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KilmarnockCeltic
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.78
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.82
+0.70
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.90
ShotsContext
13.80
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
36%
On target shareContext
35%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
65%
Box shareContext
57%
18%
ConversionContext
15%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
10.00
2.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.22
BlocksContext
2.78
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
79%
Save rateContext
72%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
385
PassesContext
531
305
Accurate passesContext
452
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.93
13.50
FoulsContext
12.20
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kilmarnock
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Celtic
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel32 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kilmarnock |
Celtic |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | 5.8Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 3 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 32 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 91.1 | 10.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kilmarnock
Confirmed XI
1M. Stryjek(G)
21M. Schjønning-Larsen
15J. Yfeko
14George Stanger
2J. Brandon
18T. Lowery
36A. Tshibola
8E. Ring
11G. Kiltie
10T. John-Jules
9J. Hugill
Celtic
Confirmed XI
1V. Sinisalo(G)
63K. Tierney
6A. Trusty
20C. Carter-Vickers
2A. Johnston
27A. Engels
42C. McGregor
13H. Yang
8E. Nygren
11Camilo Duran
9K. Høgh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kilmarnock
Absences are shown before kick-off
Celtic
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Kilmarnock · Home
No home games yet this season.
Celtic · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
1 Kilmarnock wins1 draws7 Celtic wins
Goals per game0.89 – 2.78
Over 2.578%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 15 Feb 2026Kilmarnock2–3Celtic
- 9 Nov 2025Celtic4–0Kilmarnock
- 14 Sep 2025Kilmarnock1–2Celtic
- 12 Apr 2025Celtic5–1Kilmarnock
- 10 Nov 2024Kilmarnock0–2Celtic
- 4 Aug 2024Celtic4–0Kilmarnock
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kilmarnock | Celtic | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | — | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | — | 1.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | — | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | — | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | — | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | — | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | — | 100% | |
| Failed to score | — | 0% | |
| Games | 0 | 1 |
| Kilmarnock | Celtic | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | — | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | — | 3.30 | |
| Over 1.5 | — | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | — | 70% | |
| Over 3.5 | — | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | — | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | — | 20% | |
| Failed to score | — | 20% | |
| Games | 0 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kilmarnock | Celtic | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.00 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Kilmarnock | Celtic | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.67 | 11.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.10 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ryan Lee 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.36league 3.75
Red cards0.27league 0.13
Cards 5+27%league 13%
Fouls25.6league 24.4
Penalties0.18league 0.63
Home wins45%league 63%
Kilmarnock3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 May 26A · Livingston4–12
- W21 Mar 26H · Livingston2–00
- D23 Aug 25H · Dundee0–03
Celtic1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Apr 26H · Falkirk3–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kilmarnock1 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Celtic1 games · scored 1 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Kilmarnock10 games · scored 21 · conceded 12
2
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
31-45
6
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.