Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Kocaelispor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Kocaelispor had 7.1 days of rest, Alanyaspor 6 and had to travel 521 km.
Away travel521 kmRest days7.1 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Kocaelispor42%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor31%
Kocaelispor42%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor31%
Kocaelispor42%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor31%
Kocaelispor35%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor38%
Kocaelispor42%
Draw27%
Alanyaspor31%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 8
Team strength
Kocaelispor
Alanyaspor
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
16
AttackIn forecast
18
32
DefenceIn forecast
24
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporAlanyaspor
0.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
67%
Scored inContext
78%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.89
ShotsContext
11.22
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
34%
On target shareContext
35%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
58%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.56
Shots allowedContext
10.56
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.67
BlocksContext
2.80
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
67%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
330
PassesContext
371
256
Accurate passesContext
299
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.82
14.89
FoulsContext
13.67
14.89
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.22
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
67%
Scored inContext
80%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.89
ShotsContext
11.40
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
34%
On target shareContext
36%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
58%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.56
Shots allowedContext
10.20
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.67
BlocksContext
2.80
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
67%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
330
PassesContext
399
256
Accurate passesContext
329
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.87
14.89
FoulsContext
13.80
14.89
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.22
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km946 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alanyaspor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel521 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Alanyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 521 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 946 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 9.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
1A. Jovanovic
6H. Smolčić
2A. Dijksteel
5B. Balogh
22A. Oğuz
10K. Linetty
8H. Keïta
75T. Bingöl
98J. Nonge Boende
7Daniel Agyei
19S. Dursun
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
30Bruno Viana
3Nuno Lima
88Y. Özdemir
17N. Janvier
42G. Makouta
11Ruan
16U. Hwang
22Uchenna Ogundu
14I. Hagi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alanyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Alanyaspor-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
Alanyaspor · Away
1.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-1
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Kocaelispor | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | W 3–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Besiktas | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 7 of 15 · 1.40 per game | 8 of 15 · 1.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.44 | 2.22 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 44% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Kocaelispor | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.44 | 2.22 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 44% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 3.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.76 | 8.83 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.22 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.89 | 2.78 | |
| Match total | 6.11 | 5.11 | 5.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 89% 8/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 89% 8/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Kocaelispor | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 8.76 | 8.57 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.22 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.89 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 6.11 | 4.60 | 5.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 89% 8/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 89% 8/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 4.84
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+25%league 56%
Fouls23.4league 26.6
Penalties0.13league 0.29
Home wins50%league 37%
Kocaelispor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Aug 25A · Fenerbahce1–33
Alanyaspor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D18 May 25H · Besiktas1–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor9 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Alanyaspor9 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
Kocaelispor9 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
