Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Kocaelispor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Kocaelispor had 4.9 days of rest, Eyüpspor 7 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days4.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Kocaelispor46%
Draw26%
Eyüpspor28%
Kocaelispor46%
Draw26%
Eyüpspor28%
Kocaelispor46%
Draw26%
Eyüpspor28%
Kocaelispor39%
Draw27%
Eyüpspor35%
Kocaelispor46%
Draw26%
Eyüpspor28%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 5
Team strength
Kocaelispor
Eyüpspor
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
16
AttackIn forecast
9
32
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporEyüpspor
0.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.57
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
0.69
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
57%
Scored inContext
43%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
9.14
ShotsContext
10.71
2.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.29
31%
On target shareContext
21%
5.57
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
58%
Box shareContext
59%
6%
ConversionContext
5%
1.43
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
14.57
3.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.57
3.71
BlocksContext
4.67
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
68%
Save rateContext
77%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
339
PassesContext
370
262
Accurate passesContext
302
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.58
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.71
FoulsContext
10.43
14.71
Fouls sufferedContext
15.57
2.71
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.29
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.69
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
57%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.14
ShotsContext
9.80
2.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.60
31%
On target shareContext
27%
5.57
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
58%
Box shareContext
58%
6%
ConversionContext
7%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.80
13.00
Shots allowedContext
14.30
3.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.71
BlocksContext
4.33
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
68%
Save rateContext
69%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
339
PassesContext
411
262
Accurate passesContext
345
77%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.58
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.71
FoulsContext
9.80
14.71
Fouls sufferedContext
15.40
2.71
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.29
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eyüpspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel197 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Eyüpspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 29 Sep | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 394 km | 704 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 16.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
1A. Jovanović(G)
21M. Haïdara
6H. Smolčić
5B. Balogh
2A. Dijksteel
8H. Keïta
14Show
99R. Rivas
75T. Bingöl
70C. Keles
9B. Petković
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
18N. Mujakić
4Luccas Claro
6R. Yalçın
11S. Gürler
20M. Łęgowski
10K. Demirbay
2Calegari
99S. Sešlar
40P. Ampem
9M. Thiam
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eyüpspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Eyüpspor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Eyüpspor · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Kocaelispor | Eyüpspor |
|---|---|---|
| Besiktas | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.57 | 0.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.00 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 43% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Kocaelispor | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.57 | 0.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.00 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 43% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 43% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 57% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 10.16 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.57 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 5.57 | 4.43 | 4.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 86% 6/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Kocaelispor | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 9.11 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.57 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.57 | 4.10 | 4.82 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 6/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 86% 6/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.60league 4.59
Red cards0.00league 0.28
Cards 5+60%league 52%
Fouls24.6league 26.7
Penalties0.40league 0.27
Home wins20%league 38%
KocaelisporNo previous matches with this referee.
Eyüpspor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 May 25H · Kasimpasa0–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor7 games · scored 4 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Eyüpspor7 games · scored 4 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
76-90
Kocaelispor7 games · scored 4 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
