Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Kocaelispor
10th · 15 pts · 13 played
WWLWD
1–0Full time
Genclerbirligi
15th · 11 pts · 13 played
WLLWL
Our take
Kocaelispor were slight favourites.
Kocaelispor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 12). Kocaelispor had 5.2 days of rest, Genclerbirligi 6 and had to travel 458 km.
Away travel458 kmRest days5.2 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Kocaelispor59%
Draw23%
Genclerbirligi18%
Kocaelispor58%
Draw23%
Genclerbirligi18%
Kocaelispor58%
Draw24%
Genclerbirligi18%
Kocaelispor52%
Draw26%
Genclerbirligi23%
Kocaelispor59%
Draw23%
Genclerbirligi18%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 10
Team strength
KocaelisporGenclerbirligi
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
16
AttackIn forecast
13
32
DefenceIn forecast
16
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenclerbirligi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporGenclerbirligi
0.85
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.08
1.15
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.54
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
62%
Scored inContext
77%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
9.54
ShotsContext
10.08
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.38
36%
On target shareContext
34%
5.69
Shots in the boxContext
5.69
58%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.92
OffsidesContext
2.09
11.92
Shots allowedContext
16.15
3.58
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.31
3.67
BlocksContext
4.80
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.85
68%
Save rateContext
66%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
333
PassesContext
289
259
Accurate passesContext
224
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.70
14.15
FoulsContext
12.00
13.62
Fouls sufferedContext
13.23
2.69
Yellow cardsContext
2.23
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.50
ShotsContext
10.50
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
39%
On target shareContext
36%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
59%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.00
Shots allowedContext
16.80
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.67
BlocksContext
4.56
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
66%
Save rateContext
69%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
346
PassesContext
290
271
Accurate passesContext
224
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.74
14.50
FoulsContext
12.30
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km277 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genclerbirligi
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel458 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Genclerbirligi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 458 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 277 km | 704 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
1A. Jovanovic
21M. Haïdara
6H. Smolčić
2A. Dijksteel
22A. Oğuz
10K. Linetty
14Show
17D. Churlinov
75T. Bingöl
7Daniel Agyei
19S. Dursun
Genclerbirligi
Confirmed XI
24Ricardo Velho(G)
23M. Hanousek
4Žan Žužek
6D. Goutas
13Pedro Pereira
8S. Onur
15A. Dele-Bashiru
70F. Tongya
29M. Niang
21Dilhan Demir
10M. Mimaroğlu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genclerbirligi
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Genclerbirligi-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
1.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Genclerbirligi · Away
0.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Kocaelispor | Genclerbirligi |
|---|---|---|
| Goztepe | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Galatasaray | W 1–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Konyaspor | W 3–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Besiktas | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| Samsunspor | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 15 of 36 · 1.25 per game | 11 of 36 · 0.92 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.85 | 1.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.15 | 1.54 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.62 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 54% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 23% | 62% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 69% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 23% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Kocaelispor | Genclerbirligi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.70 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.58 | 4.42 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.17 | 4.92 | |
| Match total | 8.75 | 9.34 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 7/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 5/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 3/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.85 | 2.62 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 2.31 | |
| Match total | 5.23 | 4.93 | 4.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 10/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 69% 9/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Kocaelispor | Genclerbirligi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.11 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 5.20 | 4.79 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.40league 4.50
Red cards0.30league 0.27
Cards 5+30%league 48%
Fouls23.0league 26.0
Penalties0.50league 0.27
Home wins50%league 37%
KocaelisporNo previous matches with this referee.
Genclerbirligi1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 Oct 25A · Besiktas2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor13 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
Genclerbirligi13 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
2
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Genclerbirligi10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
