Kocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Goztepe. Kocaelispor had 5.9 days of rest, Goztepe 6 and had to travel 139 km.
Away travel139 kmRest days5.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Kocaelispor33%
Draw29%
Goztepe38%
Kocaelispor39%
Draw27%
Goztepe34%
Kocaelispor33%
Draw29%
Goztepe38%
Kocaelispor27%
Draw28%
Goztepe45%
Kocaelispor33%
Draw29%
Goztepe39%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 21
Team strength
Kocaelispor
Goztepe
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
16
AttackIn forecast
39
32
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
KocaelisporGoztepe
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
59%
Scored inContext
72%
34%
Clean sheetsContext
52%
9.83
ShotsContext
13.31
3.18
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.61
31%
On target shareContext
33%
6.07
Shots in the boxContext
8.72
62%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.32
OffsidesContext
1.96
11.07
Shots allowedContext
11.28
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.65
3.68
BlocksContext
3.46
2.59
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.77
66%
Save rateContext
76%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
358
PassesContext
249
285
Accurate passesContext
173
80%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.89
FoulsContext
16.41
12.97
Fouls sufferedContext
9.38
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.28
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
50%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.30
ShotsContext
13.70
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
26%
On target shareContext
32%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
66%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.80
Shots allowedContext
9.30
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.10
BlocksContext
2.70
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
64%
Save rateContext
59%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
360
PassesContext
268
287
Accurate passesContext
188
80%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.67
16.80
FoulsContext
15.50
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Goztepe
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel139 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 12 Apr | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 139 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 394 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
83Serhat Öztaşdelen
21M. Haïdara
6H. Smolčić
2A. Dijksteel
22A. Oğuz
8H. Keïta
14Show
75T. Bingöl
98J. Nonge Boende
7Daniel Agyei
99R. Rivas
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
3Allan
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
77O. Bayrak
11Efkan Bekiroğlu
9Juan
39Janderson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Goztepe-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
1.47points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-5
- Scored
- 0.93
- Conceded
- 0.73
Goztepe · Away
1.57points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-4
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 0.93
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Kocaelispor | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–5 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Konyaspor | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Besiktas | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | L 0–4 AW 3–0 H |
| Rizespor | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Kayserispor | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 H | D 3–3 HW 2–0 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 34 of 84 · 1.21 per game | 46 of 84 · 1.64 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Kocaelispor wins1 draws0 Goztepe wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 23 Nov 2025Goztepe0–0Kocaelispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 1.97 | 2.14 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 66% | |
| Over 2.5 | 31% | 41% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 41% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 34% | 52% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 28% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Kocaelispor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.60 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 4.48 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.72 | |
| Match total | 8.14 | 9.20 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 39% 11/28 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 8/28 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 4/28 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.21 | 2.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.31 | |
| Match total | 4.31 | 4.72 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 18/29 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 14/29 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Kocaelispor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 8.50 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.70 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.05league 4.42
Red cards0.10league 0.22
Cards 5+48%league 45%
Fouls24.6league 26.1
Penalties0.24league 0.28
Home wins52%league 39%
Kocaelispor2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D6 Apr 26H · Istanbul Basaksehir0–00
- D23 Nov 25A · Goztepe0–04
Goztepe2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D23 Nov 25H · Kocaelispor0–02
- L19 Oct 25A · Alanyaspor0–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor29 games · scored 24 · conceded 33
1
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
6
5
61-75
6
12
76-90
Goztepe29 games · scored 36 · conceded 26
3
5
0-15
5
3
16-30
7
3
31-45
8
5
46-60
5
5
61-75
8
5
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
1
5
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
