Kocaelispor
Attack+3%
Defense risk+10%
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Goztepe. Kocaelispor were without A. Dijksteel and M. Haïdara. Kocaelispor had 6.9 days of rest, Goztepe 5.8 and had to travel 139 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel139 kmRest days6.9 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Kocaelispor37%
Draw25%
Goztepe38%
Kocaelispor40%
Draw27%
Goztepe33%
Kocaelispor39%
Draw26%
Goztepe35%
Kocaelispor30%
Draw24%
Goztepe45%
Kocaelispor37%
Draw25%
Goztepe38%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kocaeli)
13°CLight rain
- Precipitation 0.1 mm
- Wind 10 km/h
- Humidity 69%
RefereeAlper Akarsu
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 30
Team strength
Kocaelispor
Goztepe
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
16
AttackIn forecast
39
32
DefenceIn forecast
36
60
Form indexContext
21
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack+7%
Defense risk−9%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
KocaelisporGoztepe
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.14
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.14
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
71%
Scored inContext
86%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
11.57
ShotsContext
16.43
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.86
35%
On target shareContext
36%
6.43
Shots in the boxContext
12.29
55%
Box shareContext
75%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.57
16.71
Shots allowedContext
16.29
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
3.14
BlocksContext
5.83
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
82%
Save rateContext
60%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
403
PassesContext
282
329
Accurate passesContext
203
82%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.72
12.00
FoulsContext
14.14
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.29
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
2.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.00
ShotsContext
17.40
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
30%
On target shareContext
31%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
12.90
58%
Box shareContext
74%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.60
15.20
Shots allowedContext
14.90
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.90
BlocksContext
4.67
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
81%
Save rateContext
61%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
403
PassesContext
271
331
Accurate passesContext
196
82%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.74
13.10
FoulsContext
15.60
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Kocaelispor
WWLWL
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km394 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 60 · 9 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
Goztepe
LLDDW
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel139 km656 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 21 · 5 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Kocaelispor |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 5.8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 12 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 139 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 394 km | 656 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
83S. Öztaşdelen(G)
3Muharrem Cinan
5E. Ortakaya
2A. Dijksteel
22U. Yıldız
10B. Kutlu
14Show
20Mahamadou Susoho
26Metehan Altunbaş
7Daniel Agyei
11Gonçalo Sousa
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1A. Özçimen(G)
26M. Bokele
19J. Sonko Sundberg
4T. Altıkardeş
12R. Akonnor
20N. Miroshi
5Rhaldney
2A. Kurtulan
8A. Antunes
9Juan
7André Henrique
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Kocaelispor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.10 goals
Attack line −3.1% · Defence line −43.4% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Dijksteel Starter 6.74 Def −13.7%
- DEF M. Haïdara Starter 6.76 Def −11.3%
- DEF T. Zoukrou Starter 6.70 Def −10.2%
- DEF M. Maglica Starter 7.19 Def −8.3%
- ATT B. Petković Rotation 6.77 Att −3.1%
Goztepe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −4.5% of weighted minutes
- DEF L. Gugeshashvili Rotation 6.01 Def −4.3%
- DEF F. Bayır Depth 6.45 Def −0.2%
Total impact vs full squads
- Kocaelispor-1.6 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Goztepe+2.1 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Kocaelispor · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.00
Goztepe · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 2.75
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Kocaelispor | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–0 H | L 2–4 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Samsunspor | W 1–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Kocaelispor wins2 draws0 Goztepe wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 18 Apr 2026Kocaelispor1–1Goztepe
- 23 Nov 2025Goztepe0–0Kocaelispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Kocaelispor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 2.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 2.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.29 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 86% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 86% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 71% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Kocaelispor | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 80% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Kocaelispor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.43 | 5.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.86 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 9.29 | 10.00 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 2.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.14 | 4.86 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Kocaelispor | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 10.11 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.50 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alper Akarsu 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.83
Red cards0.10league 0.17
Cards 5+40%league 39%
Fouls23.2league 24.4
Penalties0.33league 0.35
Home wins37%league 48%
Kocaelispor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L2 Feb 26H · Fenerbahce0–22
Goztepe4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L8 Apr 26H · Galatasaray1–30
- D15 Feb 26H · Kayserispor0–02
- L4 Jan 25A · Galatasaray1–22
- W24 Nov 24A · Besiktas4–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Kocaelispor7 games · scored 8 · conceded 6
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
76-90
Goztepe7 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
4
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
